476 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



increase of more than one person. The rule, therefore, that the 

 average size of the family is not materially affected by including 

 the artificial or arbitrary family does not well apply to towns and 

 cities in which large institutions are located. For the United 

 States the statements given by the census, which includes all ar- 

 bitrary families, may fairly be taken as representing the average 

 family. 



The decrease in the size of families is a subject which causes 

 some alarm. Taking the United States as a whole, it is found by 

 the census figures that in 1850 the average family consisted of 

 5'55 persons. There has been a gradual decrease, it being in 18G0 

 5-28, in 1870 5*09, in 1880 5'04, and in 1890 4'94. Looking at the 

 different geographical divisions, it is found that this rule holds 

 true except in the Western division, where the average size of the 

 family has risen from 4'18 in 1850 to 4"88 in 1890, the increase 

 having been steady through the intermediate decades. This re- 

 sult would have been expected, of course, on account of the set- 

 tlement of the "West in the last few years, the population having 

 increased rapidly and being more and more brought to the family 

 basis instead of that of single individuals or young families set- 

 tling in Western Territories. The small average size of the fam- 

 ily in Oklahoma, now a Territory just opened for settlement, 

 shows the influence of new settlements upon the size of the fam- 

 ily. In Oklahoma the size of the family will increase until popu- 

 lation becomes fairly dense, when it will follow the rule of older 

 communities and decrease. When population becomes more or 

 less urban in character the maximum is reached, and after that a 

 constantly receding average will probably be shown at each suc- 

 ceeding census. A study of one hundred of the principal cities 

 of the country having a population of 25,000 or more, and on the 

 basis of 1880 and 1890, shows with but few exceptions a decrease 

 in the average size of the family. The exceptions are chiefly in 

 the South and West, as might be expected, and as is found re- 

 garding those two sections generally. In New York city the 

 average size of the family has decreased from 4*96 in 1880 to 4*84 

 in 1890, while in Chicago the decrease has been from 519 to 4*99 

 during the same period. 



It would be very gratifying if the Federal census statements 

 as to size of families and other social features of population could 

 be carefully verified by independent enumerations. This possi- 

 bility exists in some cases where States take an independent cen- 

 sus. I will call attention to one only, and that the State of Mas- 

 sachusetts, with whose statistics I am more or less familiar. The 

 United States census just taken gives the average size of fam- 

 ily in Massachusetts in 1870 as 477. The State census of 1875 

 gives the average size as 4'60. In 1880 the Federal census shows 



