THE PAST AND FUTURE OF GOLD. 47 



tiling like twenty-five per cent.* The decline was much dis- 

 cussed and feared about 1855^ owing to the then novel rate of pro- 

 duction ; but men get used to all wonderful things, and cease to 

 consider what they get used to. Nevertheless, the force of vast 

 production continues to operate year after year.f 



So much for the past of gold ; now for its future. In 1877 Dr. 

 Suess, of Austria, an eminent geologist, startled the economic and 

 financial world by proving to his own satisfaction that the world's 

 production of gold was destined to decrease and in no very long 

 time to become insignificant. His theory was based on the fact 

 that gold, being one of the heaviest metals, would naturally, dur- 

 ing the molten period of the earth, have sunk very far from the 

 surface too far to be mined successfully. This theory, though 

 not corroborated by any direct or historical evidence, obtained 

 considerable currency, and was an important factor in promoting 

 the sentiment for bimetallism. 



Like the other scientific theory that no man could ride a two- 

 wheeled vehicle because of the perpetual tendency to fall over, 

 and another, supposed to be based on the laws of motion, that a 

 ball-pitcher could not " curve " a baseball, this theory has proved 

 to have no foundation in fact. It is now evident that the produc- 

 tion of gold for the next fifty years will be altogether unprece- 

 dented. This production has been vigorously stimulated by fresh 

 discoveries of mines, by new and cheap mining processes, and by 

 the fall of silver, leading miners to pay greater attention to the 

 other metal. The operation of the latter factor is best seen in 



* M. Chevalier, in his once celebrated book on the Depreciation of Gold, says that since 

 1492 silver has fallen in the ratio of six to one and gold four to one i. e., that gold is 

 worth only twenty-five per cent what it was in 1492. 



\ In volume clviii of the North American Review, p. 464 (April, 1894), President E. B. 

 Andrews, of Brown University, asserts that "it is universally admitted that since 18'73 

 there has been an extraordinary appreciation of gold." This is a very easy way to settle 

 a question. For my part I do not think there is much more evidence of a rise since 

 1873 than since 1845. Land has risen, wages have risen, cheese, butter, eggs, beef, and 

 many other commodities have risen, and interest has fallen all going to show that gold 

 has continued to fall. The only commodities which have fallen greatly are those like iron, 

 in which great inventions have been made, tending to reduce the cost of production, or, 

 like coal, where the extension and improvement of railways, canals, and telegraphs have 

 quickened and cheapened transportation. The Suez Canal, Indian railways, and western 

 railroad building in the United States have naturally had a profound effect on the prices of 

 wheat, corn, and cotton. In Mr. Atkinson's article, above referred to, this claim of an ap- 

 preciation of gold since 1873 is not admitted, but controverted. Instead of being "uni- 

 versally admitted," this alleged appreciation is, in my opinion, generally denied by the best 

 authorities on the subject, among whom Mr. Atkinson stands high. It is true, however, 

 that gold has not depreciated since 1873 so fast as in the fifties. The reason is not far to 

 seek. The production of the Californian period was extremely sensational, so long as it 

 was new, and led men to fear that gold would be a drug in the market thus ' bearing " 

 the price of gold. 



