DENATURED ALCOHOL 261 



he continues: "The old distilleries are still capable of existence 

 to-day because they have moderately satisfactory established markets 

 for their products, but more than this because they have in great 

 measure already paid for themselves through sinking funds. New 

 distilleries have not got this support. Money invested in them may 

 be considered from the outset as lost. Hence one should advise as 

 strongly as possible against the construction of new distilleries." Such 

 pessimism as this is extreme, and German conditions are not Amer- 

 ican conditions. Still, at a time when we hear almost nothing but 

 highly favorable accounts, it is perhaps well to call attention to the 

 fact that there is another side to the question. 



In the Farmers' Bulletins, already referred to, Dr. Wiley expresses 

 the opinion that alcohol will not be sold in this country for less than 

 40 cents a gallon. Judging from the evidence given before the com- 

 mittee of congress and some of the other facts recited above, this price 

 ought to furnish several eminently satisfactory profits. It may be hard 

 to find any distiller of spirits ready to say that 20 cents a gallon is 

 a fair price for his product, but it was, perhaps, easier to get close 

 estimates before the passage of the bill than it is now that the bill 

 has passed. It is to be hoped that the distillers will realize the danger 

 that they may kill the goose, even before it has begun to lay golden 

 eggs. 



Much depends upon this question of price. So far as one can judge, 

 alcohol at 35 or 40 cents a gallon will be upon even terms with 

 kerosene at present prices for lighting purposes; even at a higher 

 price it will be preferred by many on account of its cleanliness and 

 safety. For the same reasons it may be preferred for running small 

 motors about farms, for threshing machines, etc. At 20 cents a 

 gallon it is about an even thing whether it will be chosen in prefer- 

 ence to gasoline for automobiles. 



On the other hand, the price of petroleum products may be low- 

 ered if the competition of alcohol becomes strong. Mr. Young of 

 Michigan, in his speech opposing the passage of the bill, 8 said petro- 

 leum products could be bought in New York for 7 and a fraction 

 cents a gallon by the barrel, and for 4 and a fraction cents a gallon 

 in bulk. He also estimated the production of petroleum products 

 in 1905 at the enormous quantity of 5,000 million gallons, and be- 

 lieves that the Standard Oil Company could sell for even less than 

 4 cents a gallon, if they thought it necessary, in order to retain 

 their markets, and to drive out alcohol. Such figures make the pros- 

 pects of denatured alcohol for heating and for power appear dubious. 



In the hearings before the committee of Ways and Means it de- 

 veloped that in the northwest, for instance in North Dakota, petroleum 



8 See Congressional Record, Vol. 40, part 6, pp. 5317-5334. 



