2 9 2 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



by the " Financial Chronicle," 14,175,000, one spindle to 4'52 of the 

 probable population, now computed at sixty -four millions. 



Our exports have varied, but not enough to affect the average 

 materially. They are a little more in value now than they were 

 in 1860, but not so much in ratio to product. These facts appear 

 to sustain the theory that the increased purchasing power of the 

 population will sustain a small relative increase in spindles per 

 capita. 



Now, any one can form his own judgment as to whether 

 or not the spindles are in excess of our present population. In 

 view of the greater variety of uses to which cotton fabrics 

 are now put, in view of the greater purchasing power, in view 

 of the very low prices of cotton fabrics, and in view of the ex- 

 travagant habits of the people, my own judgment is that the 

 spindles are not in excess of the population ; on an even balance 

 we may of course be subject to an overstock of special goods, such 

 as affects some classes, especially export goods at the present time. 

 In the long run I think that we are more likely to require a ratio 

 of one spindle to four than to go back to the ratio of one to five 

 persons. We now gain in population nearly or quite two millions 

 in a year. The average of the next ten years may be two mill- 

 ion two hundred thousand each year. On the basis of two 

 millions which is substantially the present rate, if we require one 

 spindle to each five of the population, we must add four hundred 

 thousand new spindles every year to our present number ; at one 

 to four and a half, four hundred and forty-four thousand ; at one 

 to four, five hundred thousand, besides providing for the increas- 

 ing wants of the existing population. It would then appear that 

 we may require five million new spindles in addition to our present 

 number during the next ten years, to meet the increased home 

 consumption of cotton fabrics, no consideration being given to any 

 increase in exports. Please do not exaggerate the importance of 

 this forecast, and don't be in a hurry to double your investments. 



Five hundred thousand spindles a year will only cost sixty to 

 eighty million dollars, varying according to the number of yarn. 

 Now, all life and progress consist in a conversion of force. We 

 convert the food, the fuel, and the clothing which we consume 



1. To sustaining life. 



2. To an increase of capital. 



We may, therefore, take any single element of our food as a 

 standard by which to measure the relative increase of our capital 

 into which it may be in part converted. My favorite standard is 

 the egg standard ! Agassiz went to the egg to find the unit of life, 

 I go to the egg to find the relative standard of production and of 

 savings. Don't crow very much over your own little egg ; it may 

 be only a Bantam. If each adult of the present population con- 



