THE QUESTION OF WHEAT. 761 



It is because there are a number of true diseases of society to be 

 met that the studied attempts to create new problems, neither im- 

 minent nor at present active, must be deprecated. When these 

 attempts are based upon half knowledge of facts, to use no stronger 

 term, they are still more to be discouraged as hostile to the welfare of 

 the community, and as giving rise to policies that can only end in 

 mischief or disaster. Much of the social unrest which finds expres- 

 sion in political activity has been bred and fostered by the agitation 

 of half truths or of falsehood clothed in a quasi-scientific garb. 



At present the question of the wheat supply of the world is 

 prominent, and is being discussed in a manner that produces alarm, 

 and with the alarm encourages every social quackery for its allevia- 

 tion. Because the year 1897 was a phenomenal year in wheat — 

 every one will admit that to be a fact — the fears of future famines 

 and a general want throughout all wheat-consuming countries of the 

 world are harped upon and magnified until the evidence seems to 

 amount to a demonstration, and nothing remains for the civilized 

 world but to become reconciled to a lowering of the standard of com- 

 fort, the substitution of a cereal of secondary quality for one that 

 ranks next to meat in high food efficiency. The corners of the world 

 are ransacked for figures to bear out so dire a prediction. Decreasing 

 acreage devoted to wheat, reduced yield of crops, falling per-capita 

 consumption of wheat, and market prices that seem to bear out the 

 fact of an approaching if not existing famine, every incident of de- 

 pression is carefully collated, and a picture drawn which casts into 

 shade the f earfulest famine experienced in the world's history. 



The error underlying such a presentation is a very common one, 

 for it involves a partial study of a problem where the factors are so 

 many as to present a double difficulty. !Not only must the facts 

 and statistics be collected, but they must be arranged in such a 

 form as to be both intelligent and intelligible. Every statistician 

 does not deserve implicit confidence. The most difficult task of 

 the user of statistics is to attain to a proper appreciation of the 

 relative value of compilers of statistics. Even Government work, 

 though covered by the shield "official," is not above criticism, 

 and if a bureau with the weight and authority of Government 

 behind it is liable to go wrong, how much more liable to this 

 mischance is an individual, whose interest may mislead, or whose 

 eagerness to establish a thesis may blind to certain important phases 

 of the problem. In the statistical treatment of any question the 

 greatest care is needed to test fully the combination of figures pre- 

 sented, for a flaw in arrangement may lead to ridiculous conclusions. 



These precautions of appreciating men and their work are all 

 the more necessary in matters where the statistics at hand are im- 



TOL. LII. — 66 



