13-1 



THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY.— SUPPLEMENT. 



secretary to the late Statistical Committee of 

 Lloyd's, obtained the returns of marine casual- 

 ties posted on Lloyd's loss-book, from 1855 to 

 1870. Conjointly with one of the writers of this 

 article, he worked out and tabulated the informa- 

 tion thus derived with regard to the two periods 

 of eleven years from 1S55 to 1876. It was found 

 that the marine casualties disclosed a cycle closely 

 corresponding with the sun-spot period. The per- 

 centage of casualties on the registered vessels of 

 the United Kingdom was seventeen and a half 

 per cent, greater during the maximum two years 

 in the common cycle than during the minimum 

 two years. The percentage of losses on the to- 

 tal, posted on Lloyd's loss-book during the eleven 

 years, was fifteen per cent, greater during the 

 two maximum years of the common cycle than 

 during the two minimum ones. This cycle of 

 marine casualties coincides with that of the trop- 

 ical rainfall, and it will be exhibited side by side 

 with the tabulated periods of the rainfall at 

 Madras. It should be remembered, however, that 

 the two periods of eleven years for which the re- 

 turns of marine casualties are available form a 

 very narrow basis for a statistical induction. 



We now come to the fourth and last branch 

 of the inquiry. We have already seen that Mr. 

 Joseph Baxendell,in 1871, found that changes had 

 taken place in the rainfall as well as in the tem- 

 perature and barometric pressure, which corre- 

 sponded very closely in their maxima and minima 

 periods with those of the sun-spots. Dr. Meldrum, 

 from a comparison of the rain-return at Mauritius, 

 Adelaide, and Brisbane, came to the conclusion 

 that the evidence of a connection between its max- 

 ima and minima periods, and the corresponding 

 sun-spot periods, although not absolute, was very 

 striking, and demanded further inquiry. In 1872 

 one of the writers of this article published a paper 

 entitled " The Meteorology of the Future," in 

 which was developed the idea of a connection be- 

 tween sun-spots and rainfall, and further evidence 

 was produced. In 1872-'73 frequent contributions 

 appeared on the subject, but at first with con- 

 flicting results. In opposition to individual coin- 

 cidences, Sir R. Rawson rejoined that, " assuming 

 that sun-spots affect all parts of the globe equal- 

 ly, and that periodicity prevails in all alike, the 

 experience of Barbadoes is opposed to the the- 

 ory." Dr. Carl Jelinek, of Vienna, from an 

 examination of fourteen stations between 1833 

 and 1869, showed that, while a coincidence held 

 good in fifty-two cases, it failed in forty-two. In 

 1873 the inquiry branched out in a new direc- 



tion. Gustav Wex made an examination into 

 the depths of water recorded in the Elbe, Rhine, 

 Oder, Danube, and Vistula, for the six sun-spot 

 periods from 1S00 to 1867. He came to the re- 

 sult that the years in which the maximum amount 

 of water appeared in the rivers were years of 

 maximum sun-spots ; while the minimum amount 

 of water occurred during the years of minimum 

 sun-spots. Mr. G. M. Dawson, geologist to the 

 B. N. A. Boundary Commission, made a similar 

 inquiry in America. In 1874 he stated that the 

 correspondence between the periods of maxima 

 and minima in the solar-spot cycles, and in the 

 fluctuations of the Great Lakes, though by no 

 means absolute, was sufficiently close to open a 

 new field of inquiry. In the same year, Mr. J. 

 H. Hennessey, from an examination of the rain- 

 fall at Masuri in India, arrived at a similar con- 

 clusion. In 1874 also Dr. J. A. Broun, in an 

 analysis of the returns from ten stations, con- 

 sidered it probable that a difference of about two 

 inches in the rainfall might be expected between 

 the years of greatest and the years of least sun- 

 spot area. Prof. John Brocklesby, in the Ameri- 

 can Journal of Science, stated that the results of 

 his examination pointed to a connection between 

 variations in the sun-spot area and the annual 

 rainfall ; the rainfall rising above the mean when 

 the sun-spot area is in excess, and falling below 

 the mean in periods of small sun-spots. 



At the close of 1876 it was the duty of one 

 of the writers of this article to examine the Ma- 

 dras rainfall in connection with the anticipated 

 famine. It soon became apparent to him that 

 inquiries which deal with the rain-supply of 

 India as a yearly unit must be essentially inade- 

 quate. Native usage and speech strongly mark 

 the existence of two distinct factors in the annu- 

 al rainfall ; and the local system of agriculture 

 is merely a practical recognition of this meteor- 

 ological fact. The summer monsoon, with its 

 stately and ever-shifting procession of rain- 

 clouds, marching over India in aerial battalions 

 from the southern ocean to their resting-place in 

 the Himalayas, formed a theme dear to the San- 

 skrit poet. It seemed as if the continent " be- 

 loved of Indra " had only to sit still and receive 

 in her lap the treasures which the winds gathered 

 from distant tropical seas. Indra, the personi- 

 fication of the watery atmosphere, won his way 

 to the supreme godhead of the Sanskrit pantheon 

 by the all-powerful influence which he exercised, 

 for weal or for woe, on a population of husband- 

 men. Himself gracious and beneficent, ever seek- 



