SUX-SPOTS AND FAMINES. 



135 



ing to shower his treasures on the thirsty earth, 

 he was nevertheless restrained, and from time to 

 time prevented, by the evil spirit, Vrita. Next 

 to Indra came Yayu, the Wind, representing in 

 his single personality the combined Maruts or 

 storm-gods. The same Indra and Yayu, the 

 watery atmosphere and the wind, whom the San- 

 skrit race adored centuries before the commence- 

 ment of our era, still decide each autumn the 

 fate of the Indian people. 



The meteorological year at Madras divides 

 itself into three parts. The first of them extends 

 from January to the end of April, with a nominal 

 rainfall of but half an inch per mensem. The 

 second commences toward the end of May or 

 early in June, and lasts till the end of September, 

 or beginning of October. It is popularly known 

 as the southwest monsoon, and if we include in 

 it the month of May, it supplies 17 inches of 

 the yearly rainfall of 48£; if we exclude the 

 month of May, it yields 15 inches. In October 

 the northerly wind sets in, and' the last three 

 months of the year derive from its influence a 

 rainfall of close on 29 inches. In an inquiry 

 such as the present, the first four months of the 

 year, with their sporadic rainfall of half an inch 

 per mensem, may be dismissed. The two over- 

 ruling factors in the rainfall are the southwest 

 monsoon from May to September, and the north- 

 east monsoon from October to December. If 

 either of these monsoons fails to bring its sup- 

 ply of rain, or if they both fail partially, the re- 

 sult is famine. Of the five Madras famines since 

 the institution of rain-gauges, three have been 

 caused by the failure of the winter monsoon, one 

 by the failure of the summer monsoon, and one 

 by the partial failure of both. 



The Madras rainfall, therefore, furnishes three 

 distinctly-marked elements for comparison with 

 the cycle of sun-spots. There is first the north- 

 east monsoon during the last three months of the 

 year, bringing its average rainfall of nearly 29 

 inches ; second, the southwest monsoon from 

 May to September, supplying over 17 inches, or 

 15, if we take it as commencing from June ; and 

 third, the total yearly rainfall of 48£ inches. 

 Does sun-spot activity exercise any influence upon 

 the supply which the two great water-carriers 

 collect from the ocean-tract stretching from the 

 southern pole to India, and then shower upon 

 that country? 



As regards the principal factor, the northeast 

 monsoon, which brings 29 inches out of the 

 whole yearly rainfall of 4SJ inches, the statistics 

 are these: Of the six years of minimum sun- 



spots, including 1876 as one, since rain-gauges 

 were kept at Madras, the northeast mo.nsoon has 

 in five had a distinctly deficient rainfall. The av- 

 erage rainfall of the northeast monsoon during 

 these six years of minimum sun-spots has been 

 only 16.94 inches, against the average of 28.90 

 inches which the northeastern monsoon annually 

 brought during the last sixty-four years. The 

 northeast monsoon in years of minimum sun- 

 spots brings therefore 41.39 per cent, less rain 

 than in ordinary years ; or, put differently, it 

 brings 70 per cent, more rain on the average of 

 sixty-four years than in the years of minimum 

 sun-spots. Nor is this deficiency confined to 

 the exact year of minimum sun spots. Taking 

 the years of minimum sun-spots together with the 

 preceding years, the northeastern monsoon yield- 

 ed 25f per cent, less rainfall, during the twelve 

 yoars thus made up, than its average yield during 

 the sixty-four years for w r hich returns exist. Or, 

 put in other words, the average water-supply 

 brought to Madras in ordinary years by the north- 

 eastern monsoon is 34| per cent, greater than that 

 which it brings during the years of minimum 

 sun-spots and the years immediately preceding 

 them. 



The southwest monsoon yields little more than 

 one-half the rainfall which the northeastern one 

 supplies to Madras. Its deficiency during years 

 of low solar spot activity is, however, well-marked. 

 If we take the southwest monsoon as commencing 

 in June, it yielded in each of the six years of min- 

 imum sun-spots less rain than in ordinary years. 

 Its water-supply during the six years of minimum 

 sun-spots averaged only 12.12 inches or 20 per 

 cent, less than its normal rainfall of 15.13 inches 

 in ordinary years. If we include the rainfall for 

 May in the southwest monsoon, it yielded less 

 than its normal average in five out of the six 

 years of minimum sun-spots. In only one year 

 of minimum^ sun-spots did the southwest monsoon 

 (including the May rainfall) yield more than its 

 average supply, taken over the sixty-four years. 

 It is very doubtful whether the exceptional year, 

 1843, was really an exception. A great rain- 

 storm took place in May, before the monsoon had 

 established itself, and of a character different 

 from the regular monsoon rains. This storm 

 poured down a sudden deluge of over 14 inches 

 on Madras, and completely disguised the average 

 for the monsoon months, the ordinary rainfall in 

 May being just two inches. Deducting this rain- 

 storm in 1843, the southern monsoon has proved 

 deficient at Madras, whether we take it to com- 

 mence in May or June, during every year of mini- 



