SCIENCE 



In 1916 Mr. Wilson was elected president by 

 the vote in California, whieli was in his favor 

 by 466,3UU to 462,394, giving bim a majority 

 of 3,906. It migbt be supposed that this small 

 majority would readily have 'lieen reversed by 

 an indefinitely large electorate, but if the pop- 

 ulation were equally divided this would prob- 

 ably oeur only once if an election were held 

 every day for a hundred years. 



If tbe memljei-s of a jury reached their deci- 

 sion without consultation and stood eleven to 

 one for conviction, many would conclude that 

 the chances are eleven to one that the defendant 

 is guilty. As a matter of fact if the total pop- 

 ulation is divided in the same ratio and the 

 legal fiction is followed that a man is proved 

 guilty or innocent only by unanimous vote of 

 twelve peers, the chance of obtaining a jury 

 which without consultation -will be unanimous 

 for conviction are about one in three, of ob- 

 taining a jury unanimous for acquittal, only 

 one in many billions. The practise of the 

 counts must ultimately adjust itself to such con- 

 ditions, and learn whether the unanimous vote 

 of three or five jurymen without consultation 

 is more or less valid than the unanimous vote 

 of twelve after consultation. It must be de- 

 cided on what probabilities a man s'hall be con- 

 victed and to what extent the chances of inno- 

 cence shall be considered in imposing sentence. 



When our rulers are selected and their legis- 

 lation is determined by votes, it seems strange 

 that knowledge concerning the variable and 

 constant errors is so completely lacking. A 

 decision of the supreme court, which may 

 involve the welfare of hundreds of thousands 

 of children or taxation amounting to billions of 

 tlollars, is equally binding whether the vote is 

 unanimous or by a majority of one. It would 

 apparently be as i-easonable to require a three 

 fourths vote of the supi-eme court to invalidate 

 a law passed by 'boti houses of the congress 

 and signed by the president, as to require a 

 unanimous vote of a jury to award petty dam- 

 ages. 



The method of voting used to select scientific 



men might liave useful applications in indus- 



-try. For example, if a bank employs 100 



clerks, some of whom will be promoted from 

 time to time, all of them might be asked to 

 check the fifty per cent, and the five per cent, 

 most deserving of promotion. From the rec- 

 ords an order of merit for promotion would be 

 obtained, together with the relaitive value of 

 the men to the bank and the salaries deserved. 

 The data would also throw light on tbose 

 voting, for the value of the judgment of each 

 is measured by its departure from the average; 

 if any were prejudiced or unfair in their ta-eat- 

 ment of friends or rivals this would be dis-i-^ 

 covered. The combined judgment of associates 

 is probably a more valid method of selection 

 than the choice of a superior and would pre- 

 suma'bly lead to bet'ter service. 



In like manner a group of factory workers 

 or of laboring men might select a 'boss or 

 leader by vote. If the employer would agree 

 to take one of the five men receiving the most 

 votes, the employees would understand and 

 probably approve the method. Not only would 

 a good selection free from favoritism be made, 

 but the men would share in the control of their 

 work and would be more loyal and more effi- 

 cient. 



The writer has proposed a compromise be- 

 tween the competitive and the semi-communis- 

 tic systems for payment of the salaries of uni- 

 versity professors, according to which, say, five 

 super-professorships with relatively large 

 salaries and large freedom should be estab- 

 lished. The difficulty under our present 

 method is ithat the appointments would be by 

 favor of tlie administration. If, however, a 

 vote of the teachers in the university', and per- 

 haps of the students, were itaken on the (basis 

 of desert for research, teaching and service, a 

 method of selection would be used pro*bably 

 more accurate than the choice of the president 

 and at the same time more conducive to co- 

 operation and goodwill. 



In the selection by votes of one thousand sci- 

 entific men the same number for each of the 

 twelve sciences was retained as in the two pre- 

 vious studies, this being nearly proportional to 

 the total number of workers in each science. 

 In the fiist edition of "American Men of 



