THE BIRTH, LIFE, AND DEATH OF A STORM. 691 



j 



Of course, every word that I here say as to the usefulness of warn- 

 ings is just as true with reference to warnings issued by our own office 

 in London as to those of the " New York Herald," but these latter are 

 often very general in their scope. They speak occasionally of a storm 

 reaching the British Isles and France, and affecting Norway. This 

 haul of the net embraces 25 of latitude, from 45 to 70, and it is an 

 unheard-of thing that a gale should prevail simultaneously over such 

 an immense tract of coast, so that on each occasion the seamen in 

 many harbors can not derive immediate benefit from the publication of 

 so vague an announcement. 



It is one thing for a scientific man to say that he can recognize the 

 presence of the predicted cyclone on our coast Professor Loomis 

 admits that the chances are even that he should do so but it is a 

 totally different matter to prove that a gale which begins two days 

 before or two days after the time of a predicted storm, is really the 

 very disturbance which left the American coasts. 



The experience of those who have studied cyclone tracks in north- 

 ern Europe shows that in winter, on an average, a cyclonic disturb- 

 ance visits some parts of those regions every fourth clay, so that, if a 

 warning were announced once a week regularly, there would be nearly 

 a certainty of some sort of a fulfillment. 



The results of a most careful comparison of these warnings with the 

 weather experienced by us during the years 1877-'78 are given by the 

 following percentage figures : 



1877 1878 



Absolute success . . .17 

 Partial success .... 2 

 Partial failure .... 15"0 ) -,-g 10*0 ) ~^.q 



5-0 r 25 18-0 } 450 



5-0 [ 57 . 5 10'- 



Absolute failure . . . 42 - 5 \ 45 - 



In order to obtain so favorable a result as forty-five per cent, of gen- 

 eral success, great allowances have been made. Thus it has been consid- 

 ered an absolute success if a gale was felt on any part of the coast, 

 whereas the prediction was for all parts ; and when three separate 

 storms were predicted in one telegram, none of which arrived, only one 

 failure has been counted. 



It is, therefore, pretty clear that these warnings have not, as yet, 

 proved themselves to be of much practical utility to our coasting trade 

 and our fishermen. The question is a most interesting one, and although 

 a satisfactory solution of it has not been attained, we need not despair ; 

 but we should attack it from the scientific side, and discuss the results 

 in a calm, dispassionate spirit, and through some other medium than 

 that of letters to newspapers. 



Let us now leave these American warnings, and see what we know 

 about the movement of storms over western Europe, which is the prob- 

 lem which most immediately concerns us hei*e. The illustration has 

 often been used that meteorologists, in issuing storm-warnings, and 



