146 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



the whites runs as follows : During the decade 1870-'80 the whites 

 increased, upon the face of the returns, 29 per cent, and the blacks 34 

 per cent. From the former rate of increase he subtracts 9 per cent, to 

 account, as he says, for foreign immigration, leaving 20 per cent to 

 represent what he calls the native increase. From the per cent of in- 

 crease of the blacks, he deducts 5 per cent to allow for his surmise as 

 to the extent of omissions in the ninth census, "leaving 30 per cent " 

 (sic). Then he restores the 5 per cent, making a normal rate of in- 

 crease of 35 per cent for the blacks, on the ground that in the future 

 they will increase more rapidly than in the past. It can not be denied 

 that, with these rates of increase for the two races, Professor Gilliam 

 is well equipped for the task of Africanizing the country, and, if these 

 figures, or any approach to them, are correct, we may well feel anxious 

 for the fate of the " white man's government." 



With these figures as a basis, Professor Gilliam goes on to predict 

 the population a century hence, with results as follows : Northern 

 whites, 240,000,000 ; Southern whites, 96,000,000 ; Southern blacks, 

 192,000,000. 



An analysis of the author's curious method of deducing these re- 

 sults will, however, aid to dispel this frightful vision of the future. 

 The increase of white population between 1870 and 1880 was slightly 

 less than ten millions. The number of immigrants during this period 

 was a little in excess of two million eight hundred thousand. Sub- 

 tracting the latter from the former, there is left a number which is 23 

 per cent of the population in 1870, not 20 per cent, as Professor Gil- 

 liam has it. But what does this 20 or 23 per cent (it matters not 

 which) represent ? Certainly not the increase of native whites, as he 

 interprets it. The census gives directly the numbers of native whites 

 in 1870 and in 1880, and the proportional gain of this class during 

 the decade was not less than 31 per cent. These are the figures which 

 he should have used in making his comparisons. 



Now as to the increase of the colored element. Professor Gilliam, 

 at the outset, deducts from its rate of increase 5 per cent, representing 

 about a quarter of a million persons, on account of the imperfections 

 of the census of 1870. Concerning the omissions of this census little 

 is known, except that they were generally distributed through the 

 cotton States, were largely, if not mainly, of the colored element, and, 

 of that element, approximated nearer three fourths of a million than 

 one fourth, and certainly exceeded half a million. Professor Gilliam's 

 subsequent addition of 5 per cent, " as an obvious consideration points 

 to the conclusion that the blacks will for the future develop in the 

 South under conditions more and more favorable," certainly is not 

 warranted by the facts or the probabilities, and, as we are reasoning 

 from what has been and is, and not from what may be, it looks very 

 much like begging the whole question. 



Correcting Professor Gilliam's statements, it appears that the ratios 



