446 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



the knowledge. Science demands a classification of facts so rigid 

 that all men will consent to its integrity and to its use. 



Whether statistics is a science or a scientific method, its 

 use is sometimes empirical, deceptive, and illusory, and even dis- 

 honest ; and because of these things the method is often con- 

 demned. We frequently hear it said that nothing is so uncertain 

 as figures, and many writers contend that no thorough dependence 

 can be placed upon statistical data. One long engaged in statisti- 

 cal work feels more and more keenly, as the results of original 

 investigation, not only the limitations of statistics, but the fact 

 that perfectly honest and truthful statistical tables may not only 

 be vicious in themselves, but may also lead to the most worthless 

 conclusions, the tables themselves not indicating, and it not being 

 possible to fully indicate by them, the exact truth they contain. 

 The method, I believe, is the surest for ascertaining conditions, 

 and the truest on which to base conclusions ; but the method 

 must be supplemented by full and frank analysis. A statistical 

 table, independent of such analysis, is to me what a red flag is to 

 a bull. It immediately excites antagonism and invites attack. 

 The value of any statistical presentation must depend upon the 

 basis upon which it is made, the integrity of the collection of the 

 various elements of it, and the analysis which accompanies it. 

 No one has any right to quote statistical tables without using and 

 understanding the analysis of them. It is because of the flippant 

 and careless use of statistics by writers and speakers that it 

 receives their condemnation. No one thinks, however, of con- 

 demning ansesthetics because the burglar chloroforms his victim ; 

 or the elementary rules of arithmetic, the means by which all 

 honest accounts are kept, simply because dishonest accounts are 

 made possible by the same means ; yet I know that, because so 

 many instances of the lying use of honest statistics meet one's 

 observation, it is not remarkable that there are so many surprising 

 denunciations of the method, and that we hear the oft-repeated 

 statement that anything can be proved by statistics a statement 

 usually made for the purpose of belittling the importance and 

 value of the method under discussion. It is perfectly true that one 

 so disposed can, by dropping an essential element of a table, show 

 the exact reverse of the truth, or, by a combination of truthful ele- 

 ments, prove an untruth ; just as the foolish man thought he could 

 prove by the Bible that there was no God, by quoting the exact 

 language of the Psalms in the statement " There is no God," the 

 whole statement being, " The fool hath said in his heart, There is 

 no God." Such a use of statistics belongs to the theorist, who 

 cares more for his idea than for the truth ; who cares more for his 

 view of the conditions of life than for the historical fact. Statistics 

 is as dangerous in the hands of such a person as it is in the hands 



