THE VALUE OF STATISTICS. 



447 



of the statistical mechanic the man who is ready at all times to 

 construct tables showing such points as may be ordered of him. 

 This latter person is a nuisance. He perverts facts and shows 

 how to reach conclusions false in themselves by the use of truth- 

 ful statements. Some practical illustrations drawn from actual 

 experience may be of value, and show how we can guard against 

 vicious conclusions when the statistical statements from which 

 the conclusions are drawn are true. This method will also show 

 the true value of statistics. 



I have seen it argued that the production of cheese in the 

 United States is growing smaller and smaller, and is likely to 

 cease entirely. This argument is based upon the following fig;- 

 ures, taken from the agricultural statistics of the Federal censuses 

 of 1850, '60, '70, and '80 : The production of cheese, according to 

 such statistics, was, in 1850, 105,535,893 pounds ; in 1860, 103,663,- 

 927 pounds; in 1870,53,492,153 pounds; and in 1880, 27,272,489 

 pounds. Nothing could be more conclusive as evidence than these 

 figures, because, while the statement for 1850 might be erroneous 

 on account of imperfect enumeration, the enumerations have 

 grown more and more complete; and if the 1880 figures show only 

 about one quarter of the product of 1850, the cheese industry must 

 soon cease to exist. A very little study and a very small amount 

 of common knowledge would have taught the one using the argu- 

 ment I have quoted to examine the statistics of manufactures, as 

 the production of cheese has been thrown largely into the factory. 

 By consulting this side of the census, it is found that the produc- 

 tion of cheese in factories in 1880 was 171,750,495 pounds ; the truth 

 being, therefore, that the production of cheese in the United States 

 is, as one would naturally suppose, largely on the increase. 



One of the most common statistical illustrations used in politi- 

 cal arguments is that relating to the percentage of increase of 

 population as compared with the percentage of increase in expend- 

 itures. I have prepared a little table (which I have never seen 

 in print) showing the factors used in such an argument, supple- 

 mented by factors which ought to be used. The table is as follows : 



Statement showing, decennially, the expenditures of the Government and the population of the 

 United States from 1S30 to 1S00, inclusive, and the value of manufactured products in 

 the United States from 1S50 to 1SS0, inclusive, with the percentage of increase. 



* Expenditures on account of interest, pensions, premiums, and the principal of the public debt are not 

 included. 



t The marked increase in expenditures for the year 1870 over 1860 is largely due to the augrmentation 

 of the army and navy, caused by the civil war; and the decrease shown for 1680 is accounted for by the 

 reductions made in the military and naval establishimmts. 



