SOME FORCES OF THE SOCIAL ORGANISM. 511 



size, weapons have multiplied in number and destructiveness, bat- 

 tles have grown more and more deadly in action, while also be- 

 coming more merciful in their accompaniments; but still it is 

 everywhere apparent that, in spite of these aids to carnage, the 

 military spirit is on the decline. May we not look for the cause 

 of this in the enormously increased cost of warfare and its inter- 

 ference with the pursuit of prosperity and wealth ? When the 

 internal losses to a people become greater than those they can 

 gain through conquest and annexation, they will be very loath to 

 enter into a great conflict. I am very far from saying that many 

 other causes, such as ethics and a growing spirit of mercy, may 

 not have contributed to this pacification of the nations, but is it 

 not true that the cost of war is the chief preventive of war ? If 

 so, does it not illustrate the rule that the reactions set up by the 

 vast technical improvement of methods of destruction have re- 

 acted on the primitive cause of the destruction viz., the human 

 will and have lessened the cause by modifying the heart and 

 brain of man ? 



It is not a difficult task to point out analogies more or less 

 vague. It is generally a safe exercise to move about in the region 

 of diflfused generalization. It is prudent to keep one's balloon in 

 the clouds so long as the country below is full of sharp and jagged 

 rocks ; but, then, one must come down some time, and anchor the 

 craft to some tangible thing. 



Now, I must bring this paper to an end, and relate it, if pos- 

 sible, to some present fact, and the* fact I want to tie to is the 

 existing socialistic movement. That is rugged enough to gore 

 anybody, and so I will approach cautiously with two o r three 

 suggestions. 



A closed system, possessed of incessant internal motion and 

 alive, is conditioned by many things, but three only of these have 

 been touched on in this paper : First, by its size ; second, by pos- 

 sible intensities of action ; and, third, by the reactionary forces set 

 up by changes now going on. That the size of a community 

 tends to disrupt it no one will deny. That the intensity of effort 

 of the whole community is dependent on the average vigor and 

 intelligence of its members is also a truism ; while the operation 

 of the third law seems to me to lead to these conclusions : 1. The 

 dynamic value of any social movement depends more on its past 

 history than the immediate present. Any forecasts which ignore 

 the past, and predict future states only by observing the momen- 

 tary conditions of to-day, will be surely in error. Indeed, I would 

 go further, and say that a visible movement is already but the 

 autumn crop of something sown long before. 2. Any movement 

 of a portion of the community thereby sets up a counter force, 

 whose tendency is to lessen or abolish the initial desire which 



