i 7 4 THE POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY. 



His gray eyes lighted up. lie replied: 'Did lie say two millions now did he? 

 Why, there were not a thousand died there were not five hundred.' The true 

 number, so far as can he gathered from a comparison of the census of 1841 with 

 the census of 1851, from the emigration returns, which were carefully made, 

 and from an allowance for the natural rate of increase, was about two hundred 

 thousand." 3 



Further insistance on this point is needless. That the verdicts which 

 will be given by different party journals upon each ministerial act may 

 be predicted, and that the opposite opinions uttered by speakers and 

 applauded by meetings concerning the same measure may be foreseen 

 if the political bias is known, are facts from which any one may infer 

 that the party politician must have his feelings greatly moderated be- 

 fore he can interpret, with even approximate truth, the events of the 

 past, and draw correct inferences respecting the future. 



Here, instead of dilating upon this truth, I propose to draw atten- 

 tion to kindred truths that are less conspicuous. Beyond those kinds 

 of political bias indicated by the names of political parties, there are 

 certain kinds of political bias transcending party limits. Already in 

 the chapter on " Subjective Difficulties Emotional," I have com- 

 mented upon the feeling which originates them the feeling drawn out 

 toward the governing agency. In addition to what was there said 

 about the general effects of this feeling on sociological speculation, 

 something must be said about its special effects. And first, let us con- 

 template a common fallacy in men's opinions about human affairs, 

 which pervades the several fallacies fostered by the political bias. 



Results are proportionate to appliances see here the tacit assump- 

 tion underlying many errors in the conduct of life, private and public. 

 In private life every one discovers the untruth of this assumption, and 

 yet continues to act as though he had not discovered its untruth. Re- 

 consider a moment, under this fresh aspect, a familiar experience lately 

 dwelt upon. 



" How happy I shall be," thinks the child, " when I am as old as 

 my big brother, and own all the many things he will not let me have ! " 

 " How happy," the big brother thinks, " shall I be when, like my 

 father, I have got a house of my own and can do as I like ! " " How 

 happy I shall be," thinks the father, " when, achieving the success in 

 prospect, I have got a large income, a country-house, carriages, horses, 

 and a higher social position ! " And yet at each stage the possession 

 of the much-desired aids to satisfaction does not bring all the happi- 

 ness expected, and brings many annoyances. 



A good example of the fallacy, that results are proportionate to ap- 

 pliances, is furnished by domestic service. It is an inference naturally 

 drawn that, if one servant does so much, two servants will do twice as 

 much ; and so on. But when this common-sense theory is tested by 



1 Froude, "Short Studies on Great Subjects," Second Series, mi, pp. 483, 484 



