THE LOGIC OF FREE TRADE AND PROTECTION. 53 



sucli a result is produced by a variety of causes, some of which 

 may be known and some unknown ? But as to what particular 

 cause the effect is mainly due, and to what degree others influ- 

 enced the result, we have no better means of knowing than the 

 astronomer has of understanding the cause of the variation in the 

 moon's orbit, when he is ignorant of the Newtonian laws. The 

 sick man, having dosed himself with a variety of drugs and sud- 

 denly finding himself restored to health, has no reason for claim- 

 ing that this or that particular compound had the salutary effect, 

 if his knowledge is limited to this one or similar experiments ; and 

 so long as we fail to discover instances in which the disturbing 

 causes are absent, or in which they can be eliminated, so long the 

 method of induction remains useless. The problem of trade is an 

 example at hand. Mr. Blaine informs us that trade is affected by 

 a multitude of causes, such as locality, the age and population of 

 a country, wars both domestic and foreign by emigration, pes- 

 tilence, and famine. He states that " the unknown quantities are 

 so many that a problem in trade or agriculture can never have an 

 absolute answer in advance." " If," he says, " the inductive method 

 of reasoning may be trusted, we certainly have a logical basis of 

 conclusion in the facts here detailed. And by what other mode 

 of reasoning can we safely proceed in this field of controversy ? "* 

 What, indeed ! And does Mr. Blaine really think it safe proced- 

 ure to undertake the solution of a problem by a method the suc- 

 cess of which is absolutely dependent upon a knowledge of all the 

 quantities that are involved, when, as he states, the unknown 

 quantities are so many ? The truth is and it evidently dawned 

 upon him when he asked that question the method of inductive 

 reasoning can not be applied successfully in this discussion, f The 



* It would appear from this remark that Mr. Blaine is ignorant of one of the greatest 

 if not the greatest works on political economy, The Wealth of Nations, which was reasoned 

 cut entirely from general principles. Statistics in the teachings of which Adam Smith 

 placed little confidence were used only by way of illustration, and were selected to suit 

 the particular occasion. In his admirable chapter on the Scotch intellect of the eight- 

 eenth century, Buckle says : " If Hume had followed the Baconian scheme .... he would 

 hardly have written one of his works. Certainly, his economical views would never have 

 appeared, since political economy is as essentially a deductive science as geometry itself. . . . 

 The same dislike to make the facts of trade the basis of the science of trade was displayed 

 by Adam Smith, who expresses his want of confidence in statistics, or, as it was then called, 

 political arithmetic. ... It is no exaggeration to say that if all the commercial and his- 

 torical facts in the Wealth of Nations were false, the book would still remain, and its con- 

 clusions would hold equally good, though they would be less attractive. In it everything 

 depends on general principles, and they, as we have seen, were arrived at in 1752 that 

 is, twenty-four years before the work was published in which those principles were ap- 

 plied." (History of Civilization, vol. ii.) 



It is a singular fact that neither Hume nor Smith were acquainted with trade practi- 

 cally, although masters of its science. 



f " It is, however, evident that statistical facts are as good as any other facts, and, owing 



