THE WEATHER, AND WEATHER PROPHETS. 169 



above indicated than in the opposite, on a comparison 

 of the sums of all its angular movements either way or 

 on an average, nearly thirteen revolutions per a7iniim. 

 In all this interval, two years only, 1853 and i860, gave 

 a contrary result, and that only to the total amount of 

 two revolutions in excess the wrong way in each. And 

 of these the year i860 was in many points an abnormal 

 one in respect of stormy weather. Nothing can convey 

 a better idea of the disappointment to which all meteor- 

 ological predictions, even though founded on just prin- 

 ciples, and supported by extensive inductions, are liable, 

 than this example. Still there remains a decided balance 

 of probabilities in favour of a change of wind occurring in 

 this rather than in a contrary direction on any specified 

 occasion. A continuous circuit round the horizon in 

 the contrary direction would certainly be in a high de- 

 gree improbable. 



(32.) On the other hand we have an instance of the 

 failure of a distinctly periodical cause (as to all appear- 

 ance it would seem fairly entitled to be considered 

 a priori)^ to exhibit itself in any cognizable periodical 

 effect on the seasons, in that curious recurrence of a 

 spotted state of the sun's surface which takes place every 

 eleven years (see Lecture II., -^^d). Looking to the sun 

 as the great source of all meteorological action, it might 

 most reasonably be expected that such indications of an 

 activity of some sort going on in its very photosphere 

 in the actual visible laboratory of its light and heat 

 would correspond to some ditTerence in its supply of 

 both ; which, recurring periodically at stated intervals, 



