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chapter, in order to avoid the last serious risk of such anachronisms, while his 

 personal knowledge of Lancashire, of Egypt, and of the United States also has 

 enabled him to give a living interest to the subject as a whole. 



One feature of the book especially distinguishes it from its predecessors, being 

 moreover one which other economists would do well to imitate, especially when 

 dealing with portions of their topic wherein they can, of necessity, have but little 

 personal knowledge. This feature is the statistical treatment given to the avail- 

 able data, which are brought together in an appendix running to some fifty pages 

 odd. The individual value of such data varies greatly ; some figures are accurate 

 checks on every piece of cotton exported, bale by bale, from countries with no 

 internal consumption of their crop ; others are mere guess-work concerning an 

 unseen crop, asserted by some commercial authority with a general knowledge 

 of the circumstances. Thus, out of a total world's crop of 20*5 million bales in 

 1909-10, whereof more than one-half came from the United States alone, the 

 crop of China is variously estimated from 40 to 12 million bales. Prof. Todd 

 has taken the commendable, though infinitely tedious course, of setting out all 

 the available authorities, figure by figure. This having been done, it at once 

 becomes obvious that many such authorities are unreliable, and the direction 

 which further investigation should take becomes clear. 



The need for more accurate knowledge is obvious when we examine the 

 figures of supply and demand. The demand for cotton goods is continually 

 augmenting the supply, to such an extent that whereas the world's crop around 

 1908 was 20 million bales, that of the present period would have been 30 million 

 bales, but for the war. 



The most striking feature of the book, however, for those who would see the 

 economics of British industries — whereof cotton is the largest — organised on 

 scientific lines, is one which the author has wisely abstained from over-emphasising. 

 It is the utter lack of balance shown by the trade in cotton, owing to the domin- 

 ating influence of the United States crop. At the Cambridge meeting of the 

 British Association in 1904, Mr. A. J. Balfour delivered an address on the 

 economic danger resulting from this one-sided supply, and the British Cotton- 

 Growing Association has been working since then to remedy it. This book not 

 merely shows the potential danger of the situation, but has revealed the circum- 

 stances which actually exist, leading to an unhealthy lack of efficiency in the 

 trade, when that trade is considered as a solid whole, consisting of Growers as 

 well as of Spinners. This inefficiency will be doubly dangerous in the period 

 after the war, which will tend to be one of alternate "boom" and bankruptcy. 

 The United States crop is so large that its price controls the price of almost every 

 other kind of cotton, except for some small and special crops, and the following is 

 a rough outline of the vicious circle in which the cotton trade revolves : — 



In a certain year the price of cotton is low. The small farmers in America, 

 who grow cotton on a very narrow margin of profit, owing to the high labour-cost 

 in the States, find it unprofitable ; they decide to reduce their acreage in the 

 following year. In this following year the demand has increased, as usual ; the 

 American crop is then insufficient, prices rise in America, and pull up prices all 

 over the world with them. These high prices encourage the small farmers of 

 America, who promptly decide to increase their acreage, with the result that in 

 the year afterward there is over-production, the price of cotton falls all over the 

 world, and the circle returns to its starting-point. Year in, and year out, this 

 absurd oscillation has continued, above and below the mark of demand, but never 

 hitting it. 



