PALMKRSTON POLICY. 495 



Halil Pacha, a treaty that offered him many other advantages and 

 guarantees : the Divan consented, in fact, to cede the four Pachalics 

 of Syria. The answer the Viceroy gave to this summation, for such 

 it was, twenty-four hours being allowed for a categorical answer, was 

 noble and firm : " I have hitherto lived with honour j if necessary, I 

 will die as I have lived. What you propose to me I cannot accept." 



Thus Mehemet Ali has, formerly refused to adhere to the condi- 

 tions proposed to him and from the tergiversations of policy that we 

 have witnessed, we may conjecture that it is the intention of our 

 government to wait until one of the two parties have seized the initia- 

 tive, 'ere they decide on what course to pursue in this grave conjuncture 

 The present posture of affairs may be given in a very few words : 

 1st. The formal intention of Ibrahim Pacha, to push as far as 

 possible the advantages he has gained. 



2dly. The firm resolution of Russia, of maintaining her armed 

 intervention, and of occupying Constantinople under the pretext of 

 protecting the Sultan. 



3dly. The absolute nullity of the Cabinets of Prance and England, 

 in the affairs of the east. 



What direction affairs may ultimately take, so complicated is the as- 

 pect they have assumed, we declare our inability to predict. At the 

 eleventh hour our squadron has been ordered to the Bosphorus ; but 

 all may be over before it reaches the seat of action, otherwise the sim- 

 ple alternative, offered to the Russian Admiral, of sheering off, or of 

 seeing the British Jack flying at his mizen peak, would solve at least 

 that difficulty. But the probability is, that Ibrahim will make a dash 

 at Constantinople before the Russian auxiliary force arrives. The moral 

 effect of his presence on the population of the capital, who cordially 

 detest the " dogs of Moscow," might produce a general rising, and 

 the Russian squadron have some difficulty "de se tirer d' affaire." 



On the other hand supposing affairs take another direction that 

 Russia, awed by the hostile attitude of England and France, halts her 

 advancing columns ? What if the Egyptian should not prove equally 

 tractible ? Mehemet Ali, it is true, is too profound a politician to 

 brave the vengeance of the great powers of Europe ; but both father 

 and son are flushed with conquest, have shewn themselves to be 

 men of head and execution, and are surrounded by daring spirits 

 of the old imperial French army, who can appreciate the advantages 

 of his position. His power is in the very heart of Anatolia, amid a 

 population devoted to his cause, and whose fanaticism still preserves 

 a character of great energy. Should he prove obstinate, it is not an 

 army of twenty, or even thirty thousand Christians that would drive 

 him from his position. This contingency would moreover entail 

 upon the two powers the protectorate of the Ottoman Porte a measure, 

 leaving the enormous expense it would entail on them out of the 

 question, which we suspect would ultimately embroil the protecting 

 powers themselves. 



In this delicate conjuncture, the true policy of France and this coun- 

 try is to guarantee the possession of Syria to Mehemet Ali, otherwise, 

 they will be only labouring to the profit of Russia ; for the power of 

 the Sultan is absolutely null there, and it is not by the conven- 



