218 Mr. Spens mi Life Insurance. 



cussion in one night as much as possible. These other points may be 

 taken up at some other opportunity. In this way I shall bo more 

 likely to attract your attention to each part of the subject. I have 

 great confidence in the results I shall bring out ; but I shall also 

 show the observations on which they are founded, and there are many 

 in the Society, who, from their acquaintance with such subjects, will 

 be able to pronounce with authority an opinion upon them, 



3. In discussing the question, much might be said in regard to the 

 rate of interest to be assumed in the calculation ; but, at present, our 

 more immediate object is with the rate of mortality. And in stating 

 that four per cent, has been adopted as the probable rate of improve- 

 ment of money, from interest and profits after deducting expenses, I 

 have no doubt that some will think this too favourable a supposition, 

 while others will be of opinion that, under some circumstances, a 

 greater accumulation may be expected : of course, the former will con- 

 sider I should have stated the minimum rate of premium greater, and 

 the others that I should have made it less. 



In thus disposing of the question of interest, it is not intended to 

 insinuate that it is one of minor importance, but only, I have more in 

 view at present the consideration of the effect of the rate of mor- 

 tality ; and as a certain rate of interest must be taken in deducing the 

 values, four per cent, has been adopted as I should think, in the opinion 

 of many, at least as favourable a supposition of increase from interest 

 and profit, less expenses, as may be expected by the generality of offices. 



4. The observations published by the London Equitable Society are 

 those best adapted for the deduction of our calculations. Much stress 

 has been laid on the value of the tables, lately printed, of the experience 

 of seventeen life offices, embracing 83,905 policies, and a rate of mor- 

 tality has been presented with the printed tables, adjusted from the 

 experience of 62,537 insurances. This adjusted table contains the 

 experience of the London Equitable and London Amicable Societies ; 

 and as their experience extends over a much longer period than the 

 other offices, although the number of insurances in these two was pro- 

 bably somewhat less than the half of the above 62,537, the deaths in 

 them, which measure better the value of the experience, must have 

 been much more than the half. The Equitable experience, again, is 

 much more extensive than the Amicable, the former comprising up- 

 wards of 5,000 deaths, the latter about 1,800. 



I have made a calculation of the values of the annuities (Table I. 

 annexed) according to the probabilities of the duration of human life, 

 deduced by Morgan from the experience of the Equitable, and find that 

 these agree almost exactly with the values deduced from the table I 

 have alluded to, founded on the 62,537 assurances.* The values brought 



♦ For these valaes I refer to a series of tables calculated therefrom, and published by 

 Mr. Jenkin Jones, actuary to the National Mercantile Life Assurance Society. 



