on the Rate of Mortality. 279 



From a comparison of these numbers, I inferred, 



" 1st, That the extremes of high and low prices are both 

 unfavourable to the comfort and health of the labouring classes. 



" 2nd, That of the intermediate prices, those are most fa- 

 vourable which approach the higher extreme." 



The objection taken by the reviewer to this reasoning, I will 

 state in his own words. 



" Mr. Barton, in the pamphlet placed at the head of this 

 article, endeavours to prove that a high price of corn di- 

 minishes mortality ; and in favour of this singular opinion he 

 produces tables of burials, prices, &c, from 1780. But, what- 

 ever this gentleman may think, it does not necessarily follow, 

 that because two circumstances are consentaneous, the one is 

 therefore the cause of the other. The improved condition 

 and habits of the labouring and middle classes since 1780, 

 coupled with the extirpation of the small-pox, and other im- 

 provements in medical science, have occasioned a diminution 

 in the rate of mortality, which has more than balanced the 

 contrary influence of the increased price of corn. Mr. Barton 

 would have been quite as logical, and quite as correct, had 

 he ascribed the diminished mortality to the increase in the 

 number of steam-engines, or to the more general employment 

 of children in factories." — No. 118. p. 306. 



Does the reviewer mean, I would ask, to assert, that the 

 price of corn has been progressively and uniformly rising 

 since 1780, and the rate of mortality progressively and uni- 

 formly decreasing during the same period ? If not, I do not 

 see the force of his reasoning. If he does, a simple statement 

 of figures may show how widely he is mistaken. 



Periods. Average Bullion Price of Wheat. Rate of Mortality*. 



1801—1810 76s.9d 1 in 46*4 



1811—1820 75s.ld. 1 in 52-7 



1821—1830 575.6c? 1 in 51. 



It is true, as the reviewer observes, that the mere consen- 

 taneous occurrence of two events does not afford any proof, 

 scarcely a presumption, that any connexion exists between 

 them. If, on throwing a die, it falls with the face marked six 

 uppermost, I have no reason to suppose it loaded. But if, on 

 throwing it many times in succession, the same face invariably 

 presents itself, a very strong presumption arises that the die 

 is operated upon by some secret bias. In like manner, if the 

 irregular fluctuations in the price of corn are found so to fit 



* Population Returns of 1831, vol. iii. p. 489. 



