26 Rev. W. Scoresby\s Remarks on the Probability 



Now, that this arrangement of itself, under existing circum- 

 stances, must have been fatal to success, I think we may derive 

 strong evidence, if not decided proof, from the words of Cap- 

 tain Parry. For so laborious was the nature of the service 

 (owing, no doubt, in one essential respect to the state of the ice), 

 that Captain Parry informs us that the most of the journey was 

 performed from three to five times over the same ground ; so 

 that, whilst the direct distance accomplished towards the pole 

 (including 100 miles of free navigation from the Hecla to the 

 margin of the packed ice) was only 172 miles, the actual dis- 

 tance travelled was no less than 978 miles *, being sufficient, 

 could it have been performed in a direct line, to reach within 

 two degrees of the pole, and return ! 



Now, the only question in regard to this argument is. Whe- 

 ther, in the unfavourable and unexpected state in which the 

 ice was found, and I may add unusual state, with a sledge-boat 

 of light materials, such as I have briefly described, they could 

 not have accomplished the journey by one single flexuose line, 

 instead of passing three or five times over the same ground ? 

 I speak not here of the objection of any want of safety in such 

 a conveyance, in the event of having to cross large openings of 

 water, for that will be considered hereafter. The conclusion I 

 should draw from reading the narrative is, that, in a sledge- 

 boat of 400 lb. or 500 lb. weight, instead of 1540 lb., with 

 hand-sledges for apparatus, &c. there would seldom have been 

 occasion to go over the same ground twice. Of this, however, 

 I can give no proof, neither can any one ; it is merely a matter 

 of judgment, and that judgment can only be valuable or satis- 

 factory according to the relative experience and capabilities of 

 the persons whose opinions may happen to come into competi- 

 tion. At all events, it must be perfectly certain that a reduc- 

 tion of 2000 ft), weight in the two boats, out of 7506i, being 

 more than one-fourth of the total weight, and diminishing by 

 expenditure of stores to one-half, must have afforded a chance 

 of success very far beyond the extent actually accomplished. 

 And even this conclusion, which appears inevitable, will be suffi- 

 cient for the support of my argument ; because, whether, in my 

 proposed sledge-boats, the expedition lately undertaken could 

 • Narrative, p. 128. 



