88 Mr W. Fraser 07i the History and Constitution of 



From the imperfect account which has now been given of the 

 various investigations into the probable duration of human life, 

 some idea may be formed of the difficulty and importance of ob-^ 

 taining accurate tables of mortality. The Northampton tables 

 were the result of many years'* arduous research and observa- 

 tions, and were consequently long considered as representing 

 the rate of mortality in this country more accurately than any 

 others. Whether those tables may still be the most correct for 

 the population at large, it were needless for our present purpose 

 to inquire ; but it is obvious, from the long experience of the 

 Equitable Society of London, and of that of the Government 

 annuitants, — from the concurring testimony of Messrs Milne, 

 Naylor, Gompertz, Davies, Babbage, and Finlaison, all men 

 of the highest eminence, — and from the opinions of seve- 

 ral other persons well informed in these matters, that the 

 Northampton tables are unfit for the practical purposes of 

 Health and Life Assurance. Messrs Morgan and Becher, no 

 doubt, have endeavoured to support these tables, and have cer- 

 tainly urged all that can be stated in their defence ; but, as is 

 remarked in the Committee^s last Report, there " is not, in 

 truth, even a prima facie case made out in their favour. It is 

 admitted that those tables were originally formed in a degree 

 upon hypothetical data ; the observations upon which they were 

 founded come down no farther than the year 1780, or at the 

 latest to 1 791 ; and it is not affirmed that they have been verified 

 by any actual and subsequent observations, or by the experi- 

 -ence of any society which has endured for a period sufficiently 

 long to bring to sure test the accuracy of its calculations ;"" — 

 and to the evidence of Mr Milne and Mr Naylor the Commit- 

 tee more particularly refer for the objections to the Northamp- 

 ton tables, (pages 80, 82 of this Journal.) 



In illustration of their effects, it is stated, that, according to the 

 tables, out of 1000 persons existing at the age of 25, 3i3 will sur- 

 vive at the age of 65 ; while, by the Carlisle tables, which appear 

 to approach very near to the truth for the higher classes, no fewer 

 than 513 will survive that age. Hence a society which should 

 ;adopt the Northampton tables for annuities, would inevitably 

 go ultimately to ruin, for it would in all probability have three 

 annuitants where it calculated only upon two ; and of the 343 



