82 Mr W. Fraser on the History and Constitution of 



should be ; and if that should be the cause of profit, of course a reverse wilt 

 take place in annuities." " The society use the Northampton table, but the 

 real experience of the Equitable appears to agree with the Carlisle tables to- 

 lerably well to a great extent ; and the same observations have been made by 

 other gentlemen— I believe Mr Babbage, Mr Davies, and Mr Milne, as well 

 as myself." — Mr Babbage again remarks, that " this will aflPord an opportunity 

 of explaining something which might perhaps otherwise be misunderstood. 

 If I am asked which tables I should wish to use in making any calculations re- 

 lative to the poorer orders of society, I should state that my object would be 

 to get such tables as exactly and perfectly represented those classes through- 

 out all their ages ; but it may be said that this is unsafe, and that others 

 should be taken where the deaths are more numerous than those which really 

 happen. My view in all cases is, let us get as nearly as we can the law of 

 mortality of the class for which we want to calculate, and add to the prices 

 computed from it some proportional part sufficient to insure the safety of the 

 establishment which uses them. I strongly object to using tables giving a 

 greater mortality than is expected to take place, a course which has sometimes 

 been defended on the ground of safety to the establishment. Safety is much 

 more certainly secured by judging as nearly as possible the true risk, and add- 

 ing an additional sum for security. If tables not representing the mortality 

 of the class for whom they are designed are employed, every step in the rea- 

 sonings which are deduced from them is liable to increased error ; and if the 

 calculations are at all complicated, the errors so introduced may not impro- 

 bably act on the opposite side to that which they were introduced to favour." 

 — " I will mention a little work, which is probably known to some of the mem- 

 bers of the Committee ; its title is " Annuaire ;"'it is published by the French 

 Board of Longitude, and contains an account of the progress of population in 

 France and in Paris ; an account of the marriages and of births, male and female. 

 There are some singular facts very recently established, by a large enumeration. 

 It is published every year at the price of one franc, and contains a great deal 

 of very useful information. It has usually been supposed, that the proportion 

 of males born to that of females, was 21 to 20 ; that is to say, the quantity of 

 males above females was one-twentieth. In France it has been observed, 

 that out of 0,705,778 persons born, legitimate and illegitimate, there are 

 3,458,905 males and 3,240,813 females, or nearly 10 males to every 15 females. 

 Out of 400,391 illegitimate children there are 235,951 males and 224,440 fe- 

 males. These numbers differ considerably from the ratio of 10 to 15 found 

 among legitimate children. That ratio would give 221,204 females for 235,951 

 males, whereas 3,230 more females are really produced. From these data it 

 follows, that, in France,for every 100,000 legitimate female children, there 

 will be 100,534 legitimate males ; but that for every 100,000 illegitimate fe- 

 male children, there will be born only 105,128 illegitimate males, so that the 

 probability of a child's about to be born being a female is greater if it is ille- 

 gitimate than if it is legitimate." In conclusion, Mr Babbage states, that he 

 should " certainly think it would be very desirable to calculate for the poorer 

 classes on other tables than those used for the higher classes." — Pages 28-33. 

 John Naylor, Esq. actuary of the Economic Life Assurance Society, has no 

 hesitation in saying, that a society founded for the purpose 'of granting an- 

 nuities, which adopted the Northampton table, and a mean rate of inte- 

 rest, would be ruined, from that table representing the rate of mortality by 

 far too high. He consic^^rs Mr Finlaison's table (p. 80.) to be accurate from 

 its near agreement with the Carlisle tables, and recommends these for the 

 purpose of calculating annuities. He is farther decidedly of opinion, that the 

 average duration of life has increased within the last forty years ; and in far- 

 ther exphmation of all these points, he afterwards gave in a detailed written 

 statement to the Committee, containing much valuable information. We can 

 only, however, give the following extracts : — " The Northampton table is less 

 to be depended on than any of those above mentioned, because it is not de- 

 rived from proper data ; no enumeration of the population, classed according 

 to the ages, having been, in this instance, obtained. It is well known, that a 

 table of mortality, deduced from mortuary registers only, cannot be correct, 

 unless the population had been stationary, and the births and deaths equal, 



