Bejiefit or Friendly Societies. 81 



which was published in my work on Annuities in the year 1815. Of 10,210 

 nijile children born in Sweden, just C090 arrived at 15 years of age, 3026 at 

 GO, and so on. In a male pojjulation, where the law of mortality was the same, 

 and the number of the annual births, as well as that of the annual deaths, wa» 

 constantly 10,210, the whole number of the jjeople would be 364,733. This It 

 where there is no migration, and, consequently, the number of persons is re- 

 duced by the law of mortality onlv : but if you suppose the population to in- 

 crease, which has been the case for the last century and more, in almost all 

 the countries of Europe ; then of course there will be a great many in the 

 early parts of life for whom there are no corresponding survivors in the later 



{)eriods. If, for instance, the population has doubled in Kngland within the 

 ast 45 years, then the number now existing at 15 years of age will be twice 

 as great as it was 45 years ago ; but the number at CO will be only the survi- 

 vors of those who were 15 years of age 45 years since, and consequently only 

 half as many as the survivors 45 years hence will be, out of the persons now 

 15 years of age ; and therefore, such a table is of no kind of use for determin- 

 ing the probabilities of life, and if applied to that purpose will only mislead : 

 for instance, out of this number C098, 45 years ago, at 15, if the })opulation 

 had doubled, the same table would represent only 302G to have attained CO, 

 whereas the 12,1 DC, now 15, will leave twice as many survivors at CO, that is 

 C052 ; therefore, if you wish to provide annuities for them, and calculate ac- 

 cording to that table of an increasing population, you will only provide half 

 the annuities wanted. The principle applies in all cases, and hence it is ma- 

 nifest, that these tables (the Northampton) are quite unfit to determine the 

 probabilities of life by." Mr Milne having been requested to state which ta- 

 ble he would prefer for the calculations of Friendly Societies, declined giving 

 any direct oj)inion. " Having myself constructed the Carlisle table, and cal- 

 culated tables of the values of annuities from it, I would rather that the Com- 

 niittee should decide on that question than take my opinion ; and I consider 

 it would not be difficult to aftbrd honourable gentlemen the means of judging 

 with facility of the preference." — Pages 25, 2C. 



April d.-^Francis Baily^ Esq, actuary, thinks that the safest tables for cal- 

 culating annuities for the working classes would be the Swedish. According 

 to him, out of 1000 born, there would be alive at the age of 65, " in Nor- 

 thampton 140, in Sweden 235, and in Carlisle 302 ; those have been formed 

 from particular towns, Sweden has been made from the country at large. 

 Friendly Societies are partly made up of persons from the country, a great 

 portion may be in town, and a great number in the country farms." He can- 

 not account for the extraordinary difference between the longevity of the peo- 

 ple of Northampton and Carlisle : — hardly thinks it worth while to perplex 

 the subject with a different rate of payment for males and for females, to en- 

 sure the same object : — has an opinion, but can hardly tell upon what it is 

 founded — whether from the small-pox being removed, or from habits of clean- 

 liness being more common among the lower classes — that the duration of life 



has increased within the last 40 years Page 27. 



May 4 — Charles Babbage and Benjamin Gompertz^ Esquires, actuaries.^ 

 For calculating the necessary payments by the working classes in youth and 

 manhood for annuities in old age, Mr Babbage would prefer, of the tables he is 

 acquainted with, the Swedish tables in Dr Price's work, or the French tables 

 of M. Duvillard. By these tables fewer persons die from the age of 5 to 17, 

 but after that age more than by the Swedish tables. , -Mr Gompertz thinks the 

 table constructed by Mr Finlaison for the Committee in 1825, agrees nearly 

 with the Carlisle tables, and therefore, that it would be a good table to calcu- 

 late endowments for children from, in consequence of its making death among 

 the younger branches of mankind less than some of the other tables, and there- 

 fore, that a greater endowment might be expected than was calculated on ; 

 but does not think it would be by any means safe to rely on the Northamp- 

 ton tables for those purposes, "'it appears to me, that a great part of the 

 profit of the Equitable Assurance Company has arisen from insuring lives, in 

 consequence of the Northampton table being more favourable to death than it 



OCTOBER DECEMBER 1827. F 



