Mr W. Fraser on Benefit or Friendly Societies. 277 



at every age ; and, ^dly. The rate of interest which will most 

 likely be obtained for money. These three points shall there- 

 fore be considered in their order. 



Rate of Sickness. 



It does not appear that, till within the last half century, the 

 least attention had ever been paid in this or any other country 

 to the law of sickness. About the year 1771, Dr Price, the 

 celebrated writer on Reversionary Payments, first turned his at- 

 tention to the subject, and, during the next twenty years, had 

 it frequently under his consideration. In 1789 he was required, 

 by a Committee of the House of Commons, to compute tables 

 of contributions and benefits for sickness and old age, in con- 

 sequence of a bill then before Parliament, by which it was pro- 

 posed to establish life annuities in parishes for the benefit of the 

 poor, to be defrayed by parochial assessments. 



In the formation of these tables, Dr Price could not calculate 

 upon the rate of sickness with any degree of accuracy, no satis- 

 factory observations having been previously made upon the 

 subject. He supposed, however, that as death is usually pre- 

 ceded by a longer or shorter period of disease, the average du- 

 ration of sickness among mankind would be in proportion to 

 the mortality ; and as the rate of mortality had been pretty well 

 ascertained, he concluded that the quantum of sickness at cor- 

 responding ages might be reckoned on without great error. 

 He therefore assumed the following individual average rate of 

 sickness, as that which would most probably be experienced by 

 Friendly Societies: 



Proportion of 



Age. Sickness. Weeks. Days. Hours. Sick Members. 



Under 32 years 1.0833 1 14 1 in 48 



32 to 42 1.3541 1 2 11 1 in 38.4 



43 to 51 1.6249 14 9 1 in 32 



51 to 58 1.8957 16 6 1 in 27.42 



58 to 64 2.1666 2 1 4 1 in 24 



That is, that among forty-eight persons under 32 years of 

 age, there would occur 5S weeks of sickness in the course of a 

 year, or that somewhat more than 2 in 100 would be constant- 

 ly unfit for their employment ; and that among persons from 32 

 to 42 years of age, from 43 to 51, from 52 to 58, and from 58 

 to 64, this quantum of sickness would be progressively increased 

 hy a fourth part in each period. 



