FUTURE OPERATIONS 



The shift in West European high-seas fleets will involve mostly the European Community and the Nordic, 

 Canadian, or Mediterranean fleets only minimally. The EC high-seas fleet will shift slowly and predictably between 

 1994 and 1996. Morocco will remain critical to the EC, especially Spain. Africa will also be an important area 

 for EC fishermen and fishing is expected to remain more or less constant, since the EC renegotiated its agreements 

 with most African countries in 1993 and these agreements will remain in place until 1996. Negotiations with 

 Namibia were begun in September 1993 and may allow EC vessels to resume fishing in 1994. No major changes 

 are expected in the Indian Ocean in the next few years. Argentina must ratify the agreement reached allowing EC 

 vessels to fish in Argentina's waters; this could open the door for 70 EC vessels. Some EC vessels may seek to 

 fish in the Pacific Ocean in the next few years, but this remains speculative. 



CONTENTS 



I. Major Factors 269 



II. Wildcards 270 



III. Future Operations 270 



1994 270 



1995 271 



1996 271 



IV. Reflagging 272 



Endnotes 274 



I. MAJOR FACTORS 



The future expansion of European high-seas 

 fishing will be influenced by a number of critical 

 factors. These issues can be summarized as follows: 



 Groundfish stocks from Canada to western 

 Greenland are not expected to recover before the 

 end of the decade. 



 Much of the shift will be dependent upon the 

 success (or failure) of the EC in concluding an 

 agreement with Namibia and ratifying the 

 agreement with Argentina. 



 EC fishing vessels are likely to continue 

 fishing in the NAFO area, despite depleted 

 stocks, in order to maintain a continuous historic 

 presence in the fishery. 



 The Nordic countries are unlikely to join their 

 EC neighbors in seeking opportunities in distant 

 waters and these countries are expected to 

 remain in the North Atlantic fishing grounds. 



 EC negotiators will focus their efforts on Latin 

 America in the next few years, and could 

 succeed in opening doors to Chile and Peru. 

 This remains speculative. 



269 



