 Russia might allow Germany, the 

 Netherlands, or Norway access to their fish 

 resources in the North Pacific in exchange for 

 access to lucrative European markets, currency, 

 or technology. 



 The EC fleet will be reduced in size by 

 184,000-GRTbetween 1993-96as a result of the 

 Multi-annual Guidance Program. This will 

 reduce the size of the EC high-seas fleet, but 

 details are not available. 



 The Nordic fleets will remain in the North 

 Atlantic. Few vessels will seek opportunities in 

 distant waters, but some vessels may be sold to 

 fishermen in distant countries or a few may 

 seek joint venture opportunities in distant- 

 waters. 



 Two Mediterranean countries, Cyprus and 

 Malta, are becoming centers for reflagged 

 vessels. 



 Canadian fishermen or companies are 

 unlikely to seek opportunities in distant waters, 

 but may sell some of their vessels. 



n. WILDCARDS 



There are always unexpected developments 

 which could alter fishing patterns in Europe. The 

 following is a list of events that would have an 

 impact on high-seas fishing by European fleets: 



 The collapse of more North Atlantic stocks. 



 The sudden recovery of cod, haddock or 

 saithe stocks in the North Atlantic. 



 The imposition of stricter rules on fishing in 

 the North Atlantic by the EC or other 

 countries. 



 An increase in fuel costs. 



 The EC fails to negotiate an agreement with 

 Namibia or Argentina does not ratify the 

 agreement with the EC' 



ra. FUTURE OPERATIONS' 



The authors projected the operations of the EC 

 and non-EC fleets based on FAQ catch data for 

 1991 (figures 12-14). These projections are 

 reasonably accurate for 1994-95, but are less certain 

 for 1996. For example, most of the EC's bilateral 

 agreements with African countries were renewed in 

 1993. Thus, it is safe to assume that fishing quotas 

 in West Africa will not be changed until 1996. The 

 idea that European vessels will fish in the Pacific 

 Ocean by 1996 is speculation. There is, obviously, 

 no way that the authors can accurately predict 

 future catch rates and fishing grounds given the 

 complex nature of international fisheries, even for a 

 few years. Readers are cautioned that our projections 

 are only educated "guesses "that can easily be wrong. 



A. 1994 



Northwestern Atlantic: 



The failure of groundfish stocks off Canada is 

 expected to reduce fishing by Spain, Portugal, and 

 France in waters of the Northwestern Atlantic 

 Fisheries Organization (NAFO) in 1994.' The 

 Canadians have demonstrated that cod and other 

 stocks have been seriously overfished and the EC 

 has recognized this situation. Greenland also has 

 serious problems with groundfish stocks and this 

 will affect fishing by Dutch, German, and others. 



Eastern Central Atlantic: 



Fishing off West Africa is expected to remain 

 unchanged between 1993 and 1995. The reason is 

 that bilateral agreements with West African nations 

 were renegotiated in 1993 and will remain in place 

 until 1996. Thus, catches will remain mostly 

 unchanged for most of the EC countries now fishing 

 in the region. This assumes no major biological 

 fluctuations that would affect landings. 



Southeastern Atlantic: 



Negotiations between the EC and Namibia are 

 scheduled to begin in September 1993. The authors 

 project (perhaps prematurely) that an agreement 

 with Namibia will be reached in 1994 and that some 

 Spanish and Portuguese vessels may be able to 

 resume fishing for Cape hake {Merluccius capensis) 

 in these waters; the initial catches will be modest, 

 but will increase in the future. 



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