Southwestern Atlantic: 



Fishing off Argentina, will plateau as the 35 EC 

 vessels permitted to fish in the region operate at full 

 capacity. If the agreement proves profitable to both 

 EC and Argentine fishing companies, then new fish 

 may be added to the list of target species or quotas 

 might be increased. Fishing off the Falklands is 

 likely to be regulated at 1993 levels by UK 

 authorities. 



Indian Ocean: 



Catches of tuna in the Indian Ocean may reach a 

 peak as more and more Spanish and French tuna 

 vessels fish for this species. Italian investors may 

 decide to send tuna vessels into the Indian Ocean to 

 obtain sources of tuna."* 



Western Central Pacific: 



Reduced catches or increased competition in the 

 Indian Ocean might push Spanish and French tuna 

 vessels into the Pacific Ocean in search of tuna. 

 The French would likely be the first,'" operating 

 from bases in New Caledonia or French Polynesia." 



Southwestern Pacific: 



It is possible that some UK fishing vessels may feel 

 the pinch of increasing EC restrictions on fishing in 

 the North Atlantic and seek new opportunities in 

 distant-waters. They are likely to seek out joint 

 venture possibilities in Australia or New Zealand 

 where the language and culture are similar. 

 Norwegian vessels, which have been fishing in these 

 waters, may also demonstrate that these waters are 

 worth fishing.'' 



Southeastern Pacific: 



It is possible that EC negotiators will open doors to 

 fishing off Chile and Peru to Spanish, Dutch, or 

 German high-seas stem trawlers or purse-seiners. 

 The vessels might be attracted by large schools of 

 jack mackerel which are found within 200-miles of 

 the coast as well as beyond 200-miles. Jack 

 mackerel are not normally attractive to West 

 Europeans, but there are several Dutch and 

 German high-seas vessels" ideally suited to fish for 

 these species. EC negotiators have shown some 

 interest in these waters, but overtures have been 

 rejected by Latin American authorities in the 

 region. Still, if the Argentine agreement proves 

 profitable, it is likely that similar agreements might 

 possibly be reached with officials in Chile and Peru. 



Access to Chilean or Peruvian waters, obviously, is 

 speculative and may never be realized. 



Northwestern Pacific: 



Finally, it is possible that Danish, Dutch, German, 

 or Norwegian high-seas stem trawlers and purse- 

 seiners might be invited to fish off the coast of 

 Russia. It is only a matter of time before the 

 Russians realize that high-quality products generate 

 high income and that joint ventures with Europe's 

 most efficient seafood companies could show them 

 how to produce the best seafood products, or show 

 them how to gain access to the lucrative European 

 seafood market. Altematively, access to some of 

 their species could help earn them hard currency. 

 The Russians might, for example, offer access to 

 excess quantities of pelagic species or Alaska 

 pollack, or Pacific cod, which the Europeans could 

 process for sale in European markets. The 

 Russians might even offer limited access to Pacific 

 salmon with the expectation that the Europeans 

 could produce high-value products for sale on world 

 markets (Figure 17). All of this is highly speculative 

 and might never come to fruition. 



IV.REFLAGGING 



The likelihood of West European fishermen 

 selling, converting, scrapping, or reflagging their 

 vessels is a real possibility if EC negotiators fail to 

 win access to Namibian waters or if Argentina fails 

 to ratify the agreement with the EC. The fate of 

 between 70 and 170 Spanish and Portuguese vessels 

 (possibly more) remains in the balance. EC vessels 

 from other countries will be decommissioned under 

 the MAGP. Finally, it is possible that some EC 

 vessel owners will find restrictions on fishing in the 

 North Sea too costly. Many captains or owners of 

 vessels could decommission their vessels and some 

 may reflag their vessels and seek opportunities to 

 fish elsewhere where restrictions are different. 



Reflagged European vessels are likely to target 

 cod, haddock, saithe, and other whitefish or will 

 seek herring, mackerel, horse mackerel, or hake 



species. They will fish anywhere in the world where 

 these species can be found. It is always possible 

 that individual fishermen may seek to reflag their 

 vessel in an attempt to circumvent local or 



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