. Assurance of proper allocation of quotas 

 among foreign and U.S. fishermen. 



An enforcement component is not presently 

 planned for the Stanford model. Such a com- 

 ponent, which would translate various en- 

 forcement strategies into impacts on foreign 

 fishing activities, should be developed by the 

 Coast Guard. The Coast Guard could then use 

 its enforcement model in conjunction with the 

 Stanford model, or any similar one adopted 

 by NOAA, in order to determine the costs and 

 benefits of various levels or enforcement or 

 specific enforcement strategies. 



The primary objective of the Coast Guard 

 simulation should be to evaluate the effective- 

 ness and the cost of a mix of vehicles, sensors, 

 and personnel as they enforce the regulations 

 applicable to the 200-mile fishery zone. 

 Among other factors, the model should in- 

 clude: 



• existing capabilities and possible future 

 systems of sensors, vehicles, and person- 

 nel; 



• short- and long-range enforcement 

 needs; 



• possible multipurpose use of systems and 

 equipment by the Coast Guard for ac- 

 complishment of several of its missions; 



. likely levels of assistance from the Navy, 

 NASA, the Air Force, and NMFS; 



. relative importance of various compo- 

 nents of enforcement, such as sur- 

 veillance, boarding, etc.; 



• the effects of various types and levels of 

 penalties, such as fines and seizures; 



. likely regulations of all types; 



. explicit yardsticks of effectiveness, such 

 as percent of captured violators, amount 

 of protection given to stocks, value of 

 fines collected, value of regulation on 



foreign relations, compatability with 

 other Coast Guard duties, etc.; 



. behavior patterns of foreign and 

 domestic fishermen in reaction to regula- 

 tions; and 



. monetary cost of programs. 



A model which does a more adequate job of 

 making cost-benefit estimates than the exist- 

 ing Coast Guard model will be exceedingly 

 difficult to prepare since the efficiency of en- 

 forcement involves intangible as well as tangi- 

 ble costs and results. For example, how does 

 the value of protecting and restoring a 

 depleted stock compare with the value of im- 

 proved international relations which may 

 result in some specific sought-after agreement 

 in another field? However, the model could 

 present possible scenarios, impacts, and trade- 

 offs which may result from various levels of 

 enforcement or differing amounts of expend- 

 itures. 



Although the analytical models to be used 

 by NOAA and the Coast Guard in fisheries 

 management and enforcement are an impor- 

 tant tool, there is considerable feeling among 

 members of the Regional Councils and other 

 interested parties that modeling techniques 

 have already outstripped available data. The 

 results of the OTA study also indicate that ex- 

 isting models have already identified large 

 areas where there is insufficient information. 

 Therefore, immediate emphasis should be on 

 a program for long-term collection of consist- 

 ent basic information. Models and modeling 

 techniques can be improved while this basic 

 data is being gathered. 



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