Punt; Managing West Coast groundfish resources through simulations 



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Simulation 1 



Simulation 2 



Simulation 3 



Year 



Year 



Figure 4 



Time-trajectories of catch (upper panels), spawning output in relation to the pre-exploitation level (solid line 

 is "true"; dotted line is estimated) (center panels), and perceived fishing mortality (used to set the harvest 

 guideline [solid line]; dotted line=F^,gY proxy) (lower panels) for three individual simulations. The results in 

 this figure pertain to the baseline operating model and baseline Pacific Fishery Management Council manage- 

 ment procedure. 



The extent of variability in catch in Figure 4 differs 

 markedly from the way advice on expected catches during 

 the rebuilding period is presented to the decision makers 

 (e.g. Fig. 6). One way to improve the presentation of in- 



formation on expected catches would be to include some 

 individual catch trajectories from those on which the 

 rebuilding analysis is based. However, even these would 

 severely underestimate the actual extent of uncertainty 



