161 



Abstract — Fishery managers are 

 mandated to understand the effects 

 that environmental damage, fishery 

 regulations, and habitat improve- 

 ment projects have on the net benefits 

 that recreational anglers derive from 

 their sport. Since 1994, the National 

 Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has 

 worked to develop a consistent method 

 for estimating net benefits through 

 site choice models of recreational trip 

 demand. In estimating net benefits 

 with these models, there is a tradeoff 

 between computational efficiency and 

 angler behavior in reality. This article 

 examines this tradeoff by consider- 

 ing the sensitivity of angler-welfare 

 estimates for an increase in striped 

 bass (Morone saxatalis) angling 

 quality across choice sets with five 

 travel distance cut-offs and compares 

 those estimates to a model with an 

 unrestricted choice set. This article 

 shows that 95'7( confidence intervals 

 for welfare estimates of an increase in 

 the striped bass catch and keep rate 

 overlap for all distance-based choice 

 sets specified here. 



Sensitivity of angler benefit estimates from 



a model of recreational demand to the definition 



of the substitute sites considered by the angler 



Brad Centner 



NMFS Office of Science and Technology 

 Fisheries Statistics and Economics Division 

 1315 East West Highway 

 Sliver Spring, Maryland 20910 



Email address: brad genter@noaa.gov 



Manuscript submitted 24 August 2005 

 to the Scientific Editor. 



Manuscript approved for publication 

 7 August 2006 by the Scientific Editor. 



Fish. Bull. 105:161-167 (2007). 



Recreational angling is the second 

 most popular outdoor sport nationwide 

 when measured by number of partici- 

 pants. In 2004, 10.2 million anglers 

 took 73.8 million recreational trips in 

 the United States, exclusive of Alaska, 

 Hawaii, and Texas (NMFS^). In addi- 

 tion to participation, anglers spend 

 $20.4 billion dollars annually on trip- 

 related and durable expenditures to 

 pursue saltwater gamefish (Gentner 

 et al., 2001), producing $30.5 billion 

 in economic impacts and supporting 

 nearly 350,000 jobs (Steinback et. 

 al, 2004). Recreational fishing is an 

 economically important activity and 

 the National Marine Fisheries Service 

 (NMFS) is mandated by law to exam- 

 ine changes in net benefits to anglers 

 after the impact of environmental 

 damage (oil spills, algal blooms, etc.), 

 fishery regulations (bag limits, size 

 limits, seasonal closures), and habitat 

 improvement projects (damn removal, 

 water quality improvements, etc.). 

 Calculation of net benefits involves an 

 examination of angler behavior when 

 they make choices about taking recre- 

 ational fishing trips. 



Modeling angler trip demand in- 

 volves observing anglers making rec- 

 reation site choices and using a site 

 choice model to estimate a recreation- 

 al trip demand function. Site-choice 

 models are typically estimated by us- 

 ing a random utility model (RUM). 

 RUMs are used to estimate net ben- 

 efits by looking at the cost of travel- 

 ing to the site that anglers selected 

 and comparing that cost to the cost of 

 traveling to other sites in their choice 

 set (set of sites considered by the an- 



gler). Without any other information 

 about the site, these models allow one 

 to estimate the net benefits of access 

 to that site which can be used to ex- 

 amine closures due to environmental 

 damages or regulation. If site-qual- 

 ity information is available, such as 

 catch rates or other measures of en- 

 vironmental quality, the net benefits 

 of those ecosystem services can be 

 estimated as well. 



Since 1994, it has been the goal 

 of the NMFS to develop a consistent 

 method for estimating recreational 

 site-choice models to increase the 

 speed and efficiency of meeting legal 

 mandates. To this end, NMFS has 

 sponsored a good deal of research into 

 RUMs of recreational site choice to 

 value site closures and angling qual- 

 ity (the quality of the angling experi- 

 ence as measured by catch and keep 

 rates) (Haab and Hicks, 1999, Jones 

 and Lupi, 1999, Parsons et. al, 1999). 

 From this, and other work, the com- 

 position of an individual's choice set 

 can impact net benefit estimates, giv- 

 ing rise to several difficulties when 

 modeling angler net benefits. First, 

 NMFS's RUM models concentrate on 

 only single day trips, because it is 

 difficult to disentangle the value of 

 angling for anglers on trips that have 



^ NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service). 

 2006. Fisheries Statistics and Eco- 

 nomics Division. Marine Recreational 

 Fisheries Statistical Survey Real Time 

 Data Queries. Website: http://www. 

 st.nmfs.gov/stl/recreational/database/ 

 queries/index. html (accessed on 13 

 August 2006). 



