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Fishery Bulletin 100(2) 



plications in stock dynamics all have the same effect up- 

 on performance of |management| strategies: they all may 

 cause drastic increases in the probability of extinction and 

 decreases in the expected discounted total yield." It was in 

 the face of such difficulties and uncertainties that the con- 

 cept of precautionary management was developed (FAO, 

 1995). 



In conclusion, as of 1997 the stock of red porgy off the 

 southeastern United States appears to be in poor condition 

 and getting worse. Even after allowing for retrospective pat- 

 terns and regardless of catch matrix, estimates are of long- 

 term declines in spawning-stock biomass, recruitment, and 



catch per effort in the headboat fishery and in fishery-inde- 

 pendent sui-veys. Such estimates strongly suggest overex- 

 ploitation — overexploitation at an unsustainable rate. Stat- 

 ic SPR since 1985 has generally been above the present 

 criterion for overfishing (SPR > 35%), based on estimates 

 from our primary catch matrix. (Estimates from the alter- 

 nate catch matrix are lower, and estimates from that ma- 

 trix are generally even more pessimistic about stock sta- 

 tus. ) During that period, recruitment and spawning stock 

 have continued to decline. Given the present low popula- 

 tion level and poor recruitment, we believe that substantial 

 reductions in fishing mortality rate will be necessary to re- 



