351 



Abstract— Status of tho southoastorn 

 lis. stock of red poi-fj>' (/1r;^'rws po^'n/sl 

 was estimatt'ti Ironi (isherv-dependent 

 and fisherv-indi>pt>ndi'nt data, 1972-97. 

 Annual population numbers and fish- 

 ing mortality rates at age were esti- 

 mated from virtual population analysis 

 (\TA) calibrated with fishery-indepen- 

 dent data. For the VPA, a primary matrix 

 of catch at age was based on age-length 

 keys from fishery-independent samples; 

 an alternate matrix was based on fish- 

 en-dependent keys. Additional esti- 

 mates of stock status were obtained from 

 a surplus-production model, also cali- 

 brated with fishery-independent indices 

 of abundance. 



Results describe a dramatic increase 

 in exploitation of this stock and con- 

 comitant decline in abundance. Esti- 

 mated fully recruited fishing mortality 

 rate iFl from the primary catch matrix 

 increased from 0. 10/yr in 197,5 to 0.88/yr 

 in 1997, and estimated static spawn- 

 ing potential ratio (SPR) declined from 

 about 67% to about 18%. Estimated 

 recruitment to age 1 declined from a 

 peak of .3.0 million fish in 197.3-74 

 to 94,000 fish in 1997, a decline of 

 96.9%. Estimated spawning-stock bio- 

 mass declined from a peak of 3.530 t 

 in 1979 to .397 t in 1997, a decline 

 of 88.8%. Results from the alternate 

 catch matrix were similar. Retrospec- 

 tive patterns in the VPA suggest that 

 the future estimates of this population 

 decline w-ill be severe, but may be less 

 than present estimates. 



Long-term and marked declines in 

 recruitment, spawning stock, and catch 

 per unit of effort ( both fishery-derived 

 and fishery-independent ) are consistent 

 with severe overexploitation during a 

 period of reduced recruitment. Although 

 F prior to 1995 has generally been esti- 

 mated at or below the current man- 

 agement criterion for overfishing ^F 

 equivalent to SPR=35% i, the recent 

 spawning-stock biomass is well below 

 the biomass that could support max- 

 imum sustainable yield. Significant 

 reductions in fishing mortality will be 

 needed for rebuilding the southeastern 

 U.S. stock. 



Severe decline in abundance of the red porgy 

 (Pogrus pagrus) population off the 

 southeastern United States 



Douglas S. Vaughan 



Michael H. Prager 



Center lor Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research 



National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 



101 Pivers Island Road 



Beaufort, North Carolina 28516 



E-mail address (for D S Vaugfian) Doug Vaugfiancg'noaa gov 



Manuscript accepted 13 September 2001. 

 Fish. Bull, 100:351-375 120021. 



New analyses of the red porgy (Pagrus 

 pagrus) stock off the southeastern U,S, 

 coast indicate that dramatic changes 

 in age structure and population abun- 

 dance have occurred over the last 25 

 years. The red porgy, a protogynous 

 sparid also known as silver snapper 

 and pink snapper, associates with reefs 

 and is commonly found over irregular 

 and low-profile hard bottoms at depths 

 between about 20 and 200 m (Manooch 

 and Hassler, 1978). The species has 

 been an important component of the 

 snapper-grouper complex in the coastal 

 Atlantic Ocean off the southeastern 

 United States, particularly off North 

 and South Carolina, 



This study is the first complete as- 

 sessment of red porgy in this region 

 since 1986 (Vaughan et al., 1992 1. We in- 

 troduce methodological improvements 

 that strengthen analyses considerably, 

 including fishery-independent data to 

 calibrate the virtual population analy- 

 sis (VPA), as recommended in a recent 

 review of marine stock assessments 

 (NRC, 1998). Extensive analyses were 

 made of the sensitivity of major results 

 (estimates of abundance and fishing 

 mortality rate) to assumptions. Sen- 

 sitivity analyses (in the broad sense) 

 included separate VPAs on two catch 

 matrices, one based on fishery-inde- 

 pendent age-length keys and the sec- 

 ond on fishery-derived keys; estimation 

 with different assumptions about natu- 

 ral mortality rate; a retrospective analy- 

 sis; alternate treatments of zeroes in an 

 abundance index; and the use of a sur- 

 plus-production model to provide com- 

 plementary estimates of stock abun- 

 dance and management benchmarks. 



Robustness of major conclusions to 

 these factors and relatively close agree- 

 ment between estimates from catch- 

 at-age models and production models 

 strengthen the finding that the red por- 

 gy stock was severely depleted at the 

 close of 1997. 



Range, stock structure, and 

 reproductive biology 



Red porgy have an extensive range — 

 they are found off the southeastern 

 U.S. Atlantic coast; in the Gulf of 

 Mexico; off the South American Atlan- 

 tic coast from Brazil to Argentina; off 

 Portugal and Spain; in the Mediterra- 

 nean Sea; off west Africa south to the 

 Cape Verde Islands; and around the 

 Azores, Madeira, and Canary Islands. 

 The stock unit analyzed in our study 

 includes fish from U.S. Atlantic waters 

 off North Carolina (NO south of Cape 

 Hatteras; South Carolina (SC); Georgia 

 (GA); and the east coast of Florida (FL), 

 This range expands that previously 

 defined for the stock, which (Vaughan 

 et al., 1992; Huntsman et al.M included 

 fish only from waters off NC and SC. 

 Within the current stock definition, red 

 porgy have been most abundant from 

 NC and SC waters. Tagging studies 



' Huntsman, G. R., D. S. Vaughan, and J. C. 

 Potts. 1993. Trends in population status 

 of the red porgy Pagrus pagrus in the Atlan- 

 tic Ocean of North Carolina and South Car- 

 olina, USA, 1971-1992. South Atlantic 

 Fishery Management Council, 1 Southpark 

 Circle, Charleston, SC 29407. [Available 

 from Beaufort Laboratorv, 101 Pivers 

 Island Road, Beaufort, NC, 28516] 



