HUPPERT: ANALYSIS OF UNITED STATES DEMAND FOR FISH MEAL 



Table l. — United States fish meal supplies, 1955-76 (thousands 

 of metric tons). (National Marine Fisheries Service 1975, 1977.) 



Table 2. — Annual average prices for various fish meals and 

 average price per unit of protein in fish meal in the United 

 States. (National Marine Fisheries Service 1975.) 



1955 

 1956 

 1957 

 1958 

 1959 

 1960 

 1961 

 1962 

 1963 

 1964 

 1965 

 1966 

 1967 

 1968 

 1969 

 1970 

 1971 

 1972 

 1973 

 1974 

 1975 

 1976 



172.9 

 191 1 



156.4 

 143.4 

 203 1 

 198 1 

 2246 

 217.5 

 167.1 

 145.4 

 159,7 

 122.5 

 108-1 

 129.9 

 144.7 

 171.1 

 200.4 

 175.6 

 171.3 

 185.0 

 1736 

 192.9 



21.2 

 23.9 



23.3 

 23.0 

 23.0 

 24.0 

 192 

 24 1 

 24.5 

 19.1 

 23.0 

 23.0 

 23.1 

 26.1 

 24.4 

 24.2 

 26.6 

 39.2 

 39.6 

 43.7 

 33.7 

 36.4 



0.0 



0.0 



00 



00 



0.0 



0.0 



0.0 



00 



0.0 



0.0 



0.0 



4.1 



5.1 



2-5 



10.3 



14.7 



6.9 



10.1 



20.0 



12.8 



25.1 



19.9 



37.6 

 44.1 

 51.3 

 502 

 43.1 

 33 1 

 28 8 

 31 5 

 33.4 

 39.6 

 37.3 

 42.9 

 46.5 

 47.4 

 42 1 

 232 

 22,7 

 238 

 22.4 

 23.0 

 20 9 

 220 



88.9 



820 



73.7 



91.1 



120.6 



119.4 



1976 



2289 



341.4 



398.3 



2455 



406.2 



591.0 



775.9 



325,1 



227,8 



256,9 



355,6 



62 1 



62.0 



107.4 



127.4 



na,-' 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a. 



n.a, 

 43 

 92 

 9.5 



33.3 



50.3 



10.7 



30.0 



195.8 

 2075 

 185.3 

 188.0 

 238.8 

 2296 

 291.0 

 311.4 

 355.7 

 380.4 

 290.4 

 378.6 

 492.9 

 626.7 

 343.6 

 284.9 

 314.4 

 373.2 

 171.4 

 167.2 

 215.0 

 226.7 



'Primarily from offal, waste, and scrap from groundfish and herring 

 ^Converted to protein as follows: menhaden, exports, and other meal as- 

 sumed to be 60°o protein: anchovy and imports assumed to be 65% protein: 

 tuna meal assumed to be 55% protein. Total supply is production plus imports 

 minus exports, 

 ^n.a, means data not available. 



Year 



1955 

 1956 

 1957 

 1958 

 1959 

 1960 

 1961 

 1962 

 1963 

 1964 

 1965 

 1966 

 1967 

 1968 

 1969 

 1970 

 1971 

 1972 

 1973 

 1974 

 1975 

 1976 



(1) 



Men- 

 haden 



(2) 



Tuna 



(3) 



(4) 



Domestic Peruvian 

 anchovy anchovy 



(5) 



Average price 



per unit protein 



in fish meal 



Actual' Deflated' 



-dollars per metric ton of meal- 



123.4 

 121.7 

 117.7 

 125.0 

 116.2 

 84.4 

 106.4 

 112.6 

 114.1 

 119.3 

 152.9 

 146.1 

 123,8 

 131,8 

 158,1 

 167.4 

 143.3 

 168.3 

 433.8 

 250.5 

 216.9 

 314.3 



130.7 

 121.7 

 114.8 

 124.8 

 117,1 

 86,0 

 99,7 

 109.5 

 106.2 

 115.8 

 143.2 

 134.4 

 117.6 

 114.2 

 132.6 

 155.4 

 128.0 

 141.4 

 359.6 

 245.5 

 206.3 

 347.8 



137.3 



117.5 

 110.7 

 137.9 

 156.0 

 140.4 

 154.1 

 3655 

 270.3 

 214.8 

 247.5 



121.5 

 128.2 

 131.9 

 86.1 

 100.0 

 111.2 

 109.7 

 119.7 

 140.3 

 141.9 

 118.1 

 118.8 

 142.5 

 176-4 

 150.7 

 162.6 

 409.8 

 260.6 

 226.5 

 309 9 



1.99 



1.97 



1.95 



201 



1.95 



1.39 



1.69 



1.81 



1.76 



1.88 



2.30 



2.23 



1.86 



1.88 



2.31 



272 



2.33 



259 



675 



4.15 



3.54 



4.92 



4.34 



4.16 



4.01 



4.19 



3.94 



2.80 



3.40 



364 



3.58 



3.81 



4.63 



4.33 



3.57 



3.53 



424 



4.72 



3.92 



4.15 



9.70 



499 



388 



5.15 



' For each meal, price per unit protein equals price per ton divided by percent 

 protein. Average price computed by weighting the price per unit protein for each 

 meal by the proportion of U.S. fish meal protein supplied by that meal. 



^Deflated by Wholesale Price Index, all commodities (January 1977 = 100). 



In addition to the price offish meal, the demand 

 model should contain independent variables rep- 

 resenting 1) the prices of close substitute prod- 

 ucts, 2) prices of complementary products, and 

 3) the level of production activity that governs 

 the demand for fish meal. Several high protein 

 meals (e.g., soybean, cottonseed, meat, and bone 

 meals) are potential substitutes for fish meal in 

 poultry rations. Soybean meal is the most com- 

 mon substitute, and its price is used as an inde- 

 pendent variable in the demand model. The price 

 of corn meal (Table 3, column 2) is introduced as a 

 complementary product price. Demand for fish 

 meal is expected to increase when the price of a 

 substitute product increases, and is expected to 

 decrease when the price of a complementary prod- 

 uct increases. Finally, the overall production of 

 poultry products would cause shifts in the level of 

 demand for fish meal independently of the prices. 

 The poultry and egg production index (Table 3, 

 column 3) is adopted as the appropriate measure 

 of this factor. 



In summary, the fish meal demand model is 

 specified as follows: 



1) Quantity demanded, the independent vari- 

 able, is represented by annual production plus 

 net imports of protein-equivalent meal. 



2) Annual price of fish meal is measured as the 

 weighted average of the prices per unit protein 

 for all domestically supplied meals. 



Table 3. — Exogenous variables in the fish meal demand model. 



'Forty-four percent protein. Simple 

 tional Marine Fisheries Service (1977) 



2Price of No. 2 yellow corn, Chicago 

 PES-294, 1965-77. 



3From Schultze et al. (1979). 



average price at Decatur, III., from Na- 

 USDA, ERS, Poultry and Egg Situation, 



269 



