LYNDE: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF GROUNDFISH HARVEST 



12 t/d for the two vessel types if delivering at sea 

 and 30 and 17 t/d if delivering to port. 



The catch rates that can be expected by U.S. 

 groundfish trawlers operating in the Bering Sea 

 and Aleutians are even more nebulous. The Soviet 

 trawlers targeting on sole in the Bering Sea dur- 

 ing 1978 were much larger (76-89 m, 2,000 hp) 

 than the U.S. trawlers under consideration (Pru- 

 ter^^). However, much of the factory trawler's size 

 is devoted to supporting crews of 87-96 for periods 

 up to 90 d at sea. In addition, these vessels must 

 have space for large processing and storage 

 facilities. The U.S. vessels, on the other hand, with 

 crews of four or five and no processing facilities, 

 are more efficient for their size as catchers. There- 

 fore, the break-even catch rates of 14 and 7 t/d for 

 vessel types 1 and 2 targeting on sole and deliver- 

 ing to sea seem quite feasible when compared with 

 the Soviet's average of over 43 t/d. Even though the 

 catch rates required if delivering to port (25 t/d for 

 vessel type 1, 14 t/d for vessel type 2) are nearly 

 twice as high as required when delivering at sea, 

 they still may be considered feasible when com- 

 pared with the average Soviet catch rate. 



If instead, U.S. trawlers similar to types 1 and 2 

 target primarily on walleye pollock in the Aleu- 

 tians as did large Korean factory trawlers (89-111 

 m, 3,500-6,000 hp, Pruter footnote 16) the U.S. 

 vessels would require catch rates of approximately 

 24 and 12 t/d if delivering at sea. The correspond- 

 ing catch rates if delivering to port are 37 and 17 

 t/d. Although these catch rates are higher than 

 under the previous strategies, they may be feasi- 

 ble considering the high availability of walleye 

 pollock in the area. In fact, none of the above catch 

 rates can be considered unfeasible since the aver- 

 age Korean catch rate in the Aleutian area ex- 

 ceeded 61 t/d. 



DISCUSSION 



Recently a number of events have occurred 

 which have made fishing for groundfish in western 

 Alaska relatively more attractive. 



1) A market for potentially large quantities of 

 groundfish has developed with the initiation of 

 the two international joint ventures in western 

 Alaska. 



2) Groundfish markets in California, Oregon, 

 and Washington have been erratic and prices have 

 been generally low (Sorensen^^). 



3) Vessel profits from the western Alaska shell- 

 fisheries have decreased due to: 



a) declining abundance of pandalid shrimp 

 (Jackson et al.^^) and snow crab stocks 

 (Somerton^^), 



b) a drop in the ex- vessel price for king crab 

 from $2,460/t ($1.23/lb) in 1978 to $l,720/t 

 ($0.86/lb) in 1979 (Browning^"), and 



c) expansion of the king crab fleet (from 60 

 boats in 1977 to 226 in 1979) leading to 

 shortened seasons and reduced average 

 vessel shares of the relatively constant 

 quota. 



The results of this analysis indicate that given a 

 market with ex-vessel prices similar to those being 

 offered by the joint venture firms, U.S. fishermen 

 may currently find it economically attractive to 

 participate in a trawl fishery for groundfish in 

 western Alaska. In fact, some 23 vessels are com- 

 mitted to fish for the joint venture operations in 

 western Alaska during 1980 (Blackburn^^). It 

 would seem, from this analysis, that operators of 

 vessels similar to vessel types 1 or 2 can currently 

 cover both fixed and variable costs given the above 

 ex-vessel prices whether delivering at sea or de- 

 livering to port. However, the profits if delivering 

 to port would be less. To equal the vessel profits 

 under the sea delivery mode, land-based pro- 

 cessors would have to offer ex-vessl prices at least 

 45% higher than those offered at floating pro- 

 cessors would have to offer ex-vessel prices at least 

 delivering at sea should increase with increased 

 fuel costs. As fuel prices increase, owners of larger 

 vessels with high horsepower, such as vessel type 1, 

 will have a harder time making a profit in a west- 

 ern Alaska groundfish trawl fishery than owners 

 of smaller vessels such as type 2. 



This paper has not examined the economic 

 feasibility of domestic processors. However, since 



"'Pruter, A. T. 1980. Preliminary analysis of data obtained 

 by foreign fishery observers in 1978. Processed Rep. 80-7, 58 p. 

 Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Center, National Marine 

 Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, WA 98112. 



'^Sorensen, S. 1979. Statement to the International Trade 

 Commission. Reprinted in Alaska Fisherman's J. 2(12):20-21. 



'^Jackson, P. B., P. Holmes, A. Spalinger, and J. Nickels. 

 1979. Shrimp research. In Westward Region Shellfish Re- 

 port to the Alaska Board of Fisheries, April, 1979, p. 216-242. 

 Alaska Dep. Fish Game, Kodiak. 



'^Somerton, D. 1979. A reappraisal ofthe declining trend of 

 recruitment to the Bering Sea stock of tanner crab ( Chionoecetes 

 bairdi). Norfish Tech. Rep. 92, 16 p. 



^"Browning, R. 1979. Crab season cut short as Bering boats 

 fill quota. Natl. Fisherman 60(8):11. 



^'Blackburn, C. 1979. Plans progress for KMIDC fish pur- 

 chases. Kodiak Daily Mirror 39(185):l-3. 



311 



