Harvey: Effects of El Nino events on consumption and egg production of Sebastes spp. 



79 



0.2 



0.4 



0.6 



0.8 



1.0 



0.2 



0.4 0.6 0.! 



Total mortaility rate (Z) 



1.0 



Figure 5 



Effects of mortality (Z, increased due to fishingl on S. mystinus responses 

 to El Nino events, in relation to a baseline model with identical Z. (A) 

 Cohort A, which experienced 5 El Nino years (see Figs. 3 and 4). (B) 

 Cohort B, which experienced 8 El Nino years. 



(Fig. 6, C and D). RPSS cv=10( - r values declined to 0.84 

 and 0.94 for females and males, respectively, indicating a 

 greater degree of nonlinearity in response to parameter 

 variation. Finally, when CV increased to 20%, there 

 were major changes in parameter rank order and RPSS, 

 especially for females (Fig. 6E). All female parameters 

 essentially had equal weight, and RPSS cv=2(r; dropped 

 dramatically to 0.14, indicating a nonlinear response to 

 parameter variation. Males experienced slight changes 

 in parameter rank order at CV = 20% (Fig. 6F) and 

 increasingly nonlinear behavior related to parameter 

 variation (RPSS cv=20r; = 0.81). Because the major differ- 

 ence in the models for the two sexes is the reproductive 

 terms (i.e., Eq. 4 for females vs. the simple GSI calcula- 

 tion for males), the GA or GB terms (or both) appear 



to be the cause of poor female model performance at 

 high parameter uncertainty. Also, because GA and GB 

 should only affect female energy budgets as the females 

 mature, model sensitivity to those parameters is likely 

 size dependent. 



Energy consumption estimates generated in RPSS 

 analyses were consistently greater than estimates gen- 

 erated by the baseline deterministic model, which used 

 the parameter values from Table 1. Mean consump- 

 tion estimates and standard deviations increased as 

 the parameter CV increased (Table 4). This effect was 

 more pronounced in females than in males, especially 

 when parameter CV=20%. At that level of parameter 

 uncertainty, male and especially female consumption 

 estimates had very large standard deviations. 



