380 REINERS 



One approach to such an estimation would be through a coordination of 

 geographic techniques and data on land "development" in the world. Data for 

 the tropics seem especially important. An example of such an estimation is given 

 in Table 2.2 of the SCEP Report. 1 The addition of aerial or satellite surveillance 

 techniques would permit estimates of biomass and, perhaps, production at 

 relatively low cost. For example, satellite photography could provide data on 

 conversion of Asian steppes to wheatlands, taiga to rye, tropical rain forests to 

 croplands, farm and forest land to asphalt, concrete, and shingle. 



Modeling 



Modeling provides our best means of making predictions for changes in such 

 complex systems as the carbon cycle. In addition, it provides a theoretical base 

 from which investigative research can be planned. A continuous effort, 

 incorporating new data and concepts as they are developed, might best be 

 accomplished with a small team of modelers organized so that optimum 

 information exchange is maintained between modelers and field and literature 

 investigators. 



SCEP Recommendations 



Many of the contributors to the SCEP Report 1 are also some of the 

 foremost investigators of aspects of the carbon cycle. It is no accident, therefore, 

 that many of the SCEP Report recommendations for action and research are 

 pertinent to a summary of recommended research. 



SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS 



Coordinated research on the carbon cycle can be organized in a number of 

 different ways and on a number of scales. One minimal approach would be to 

 sponsor a series of task-force meetings to culminate in such a final interdisci- 

 plinary meeting as the Brookhaven Symposium. 



Another minimal approach might be the sponsorship of a number of 

 investigators to assemble field data in the literature. These survey reports could 

 be combined with the above-mentioned meeting schedule, together with a 

 modest modeling effort. 



A third approach would be to sponsor a pioneering effort combining 

 untested technology with a multidisciplinary investigation of global processes. 

 Perhaps the most promising project of this sort would be the development of a 

 satellite surveillance program to include estimates of trace gases in the 

 atmosphere, COj in the troposphere, land-use changes and biomass estimates on 

 land surfaces, and productivity and pollution patterns in the oceans. A possible 

 prototype of this kind of program, the Earth Resources Technology Satellite 

 (ERTS), is operative. 24 



