SIEGEL ET M LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACH 



Table 5. — Processing requirements per pound of each species in 

 a directed fishery. iSource; National Marine Fisheries Service, 

 Statistics Branch, Gloucester, MA 01930.1 



Species 



Processing requirement 



Atlantic cod 



Haddock 



Redfish 



Silver hake 



Red hake 



Pollock 



Yellowtail flounder 



Other flounders 



Other finflsh 



Mackerel 



Squid 



1 1745 

 1 19085 

 1 1425 

 1 42415 

 2 10885 

 1 2895 

 1 1911 

 1 8935 

 1 98135 

 1 3485 

 1 003 



The estimate of 142,000 t for 1976 also could be 

 modified to take into consideration the changes in 

 technology of the fleet. The changes include, 

 among others, the utilization of stern trawlers. 

 pair trawls, improved loran, and increase in 

 horsepower. It is assumed for this example that 

 these changes account for an estimated 5,000 t of 

 additional harvesting capacity under current 

 conditions of abundance. Table 6 shows the 

 simplex tableau for the LP calculations for the 

 base model. 



proach outlined in the previous section." In 1976, 

 for example, the deflated estimate of landings was 

 142,000 t under current conditions of abundance. 

 Another way of explaining this figure is as follows: 

 if we assume that the relationship between aggre- 

 gate production prices and aggregate factor costs 

 have been unchanged since 1957, then we would 

 expect that 142,000 1 offish would be landed by the 

 otter trawl fleet (given the current level of abun- 

 dance). It should be noted that in 1965 and 1971 

 the actual catch was larger than the estimated 

 potential catch adjusted for abundance. These dis- 

 crepancies could be due to reasons such as in- 

 creased fishing intensity or possibly large sam- 

 pling errors given the stochastic nature of the 

 stocks. 



Estimates of undeflated catch are also provided 

 in Table 2. These indicate what could be caught if 

 1957 productivity conditions prevailed. However, 

 these estimates are not particularly meaningful 

 since they do not reflect changes in stock abun- 

 dance and cost conditions. 



"Data on catch per gross registered ton were not available for 

 1975-76. The estimates of deflated capacity m 1976 for this 

 example were based on 1973 data on catch per GRT and the 1976 

 index of abundance ( A, 'A o'- It is interesting to note that the 1974 

 forecast was within 5^V of the actual 1974 catch bv otter trawls. 



RESULTS 



The base model computations are presented in 

 Table 7. Column 2 (Directed catch) shows the 

 catches of each of the species in the directed 

 fisheries. Column 3 (Bycatch) presents the resul- 

 tant incidental catches of each of the species that 

 are implied by the directed catches in column 2. 

 The total gross revenues that would accrue to the 

 otter trawl fleet by employing this fishing 

 strategy, as predicated on the optimal LP solution, 

 would be $68.5 million. This is the maximum gross 

 revenue that the fleet could obtain given the as- 

 sumptions of the LP model. In other words, there is 

 no other fishing strategy (allocation of harvesting 

 capacity) that would result in a larger level of 

 gross revenues. 



The FCMA requires that foreign fishing be al- 

 lowed on those stocks for which surpluses have 

 been identified. This LP model can be used to esti- 

 mate foreign surpluses. Column 4 (Total catch) 

 presents the estimated total U.S. catches of each of 

 the species. Column 5 (Quota) indicates the rec- 

 ommended quotas for 1977. Column 6 (Estimated 

 surplus) shows the resultant surplus or the excess 

 of each species quota over the probable U.S. catch 

 of the particular species as identified by the model. 



Table 6. — Basic computational form or simplex tableau for LP calculations. 



431 



