746 



Fishery Bulletin 94(4). 1 996 



unknown. The above review of the literature indi- 

 cated that factors affecting larval and juvenile pink 

 shrimp abundance and survival during the months 

 of May-October were most likely to affect recruit- 

 ment to the next fishing year. 



Data sources 



Development of forecasting models requires sets of 

 long-term data collected in a consistent manner. 

 There are no long-term environmental or biological 

 data sets from within Florida Bay per se (Schmidt 

 and Davis, 1978), with the exception of an historical 

 salinity data set that has been compiled by the Na- 

 tional Biological Service. 4 Thus, the primary sources 

 of long-term data used in my models were those with 

 physical or biological factors for May-October in lo- 

 cations near Florida Bay. These sources were the U.S. 

 Department of Commerce (National Weather Service 

 [NWS]; National Ocean Service [NOS]; and NMFS) 

 and the U.S. Department of the Interior (Everglades 

 National Park [ENP]). 



National Weather Service stations in Key West and 

 Miami, Florida, bracket Florida Bay and Everglades 

 National Park (Fig. 1). The NWS collects data that 

 provide hourly, daily, and monthly maxima, minima, 

 means, and totals for climatic factors. 5 Monthly val- 



5 National Weather Service. 1963-1994. Local climatological 

 data, monthly summaries for Miami and Kev West, Florida. 

 NOAA, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC 28801. 



ues at each site were compiled for the following vari- 

 ables: mean air temperature; total heating and cool- 

 ing degree days (on any given date, one degree day 

 accrues for each °F that the mean temperature falls 

 below or above 65°F [18.3°C], respectively); total days 

 with air temperatures s55°F (13°C) and *90°F (32°C) 

 to examine effects of temperature extremes; mean 

 wind speed; mean cloud cover; and total rainfall. 



NOS records monthly sea level data at Miami 

 Beach and Key West, Florida. I compiled monthly 

 mean sea level data for Key West (station number 

 8724580), the tide gauge used by NOS to develop tide 

 tables for Florida Bay. 6 



ENP maintains a series of ground water wells, sur- 

 face water discharge gates, and rain gauges to moni- 

 tor hydrology within the park. 7 I compiled the fol- 

 lowing data: mean monthly water level at three wells 

 closest to the coast (P35 and P38 in Shark River 

 Slough flowing into Whitewater Bay and the Gulf of 

 Mexico, and P37 in Taylor Slough flowing into cen- 

 tral Florida Bay); monthly total surface water dis- 

 charge into northern ENP via two sets of water con- 

 trol structures (Canal L-67 to 40-Mile Bend and Ca- 

 nal L-30 to Canal L-67, later referred to as L-67 and 

 L-30) along the Tamiami Trail, U.S. Highway 41; and 

 total monthly rainfall at three gauges within the park 

 (from south to north: Flamingo, Royal Palm, and 

 Tamiami Trail; Fig. 1). In 1987, a correlation analy- 

 sis of the ENP, Key West, and Miami monthly rain 

 data was conducted for the period 1963-86. Although 

 all five gauges were significantly correlated (r=0.514— 

 0.792, P<0.05), the Royal Palm gauge had 

 the highest correlations with gauges 

 other than Key West (r=0. 773-0. 792). 

 Lowest correlations were found between 

 Key West and other gauges (r=0.514- 

 0.609). For these reasons, Royal Palm was 

 selected as the primary rainfall indicator 

 (Miami was substituted directly in 1993 

 because of disruptions in ENP data avail- 

 ability caused by Hurricane Andrew). 



Finally, NMFS collects monthly catch 

 and effort data (and thus catch per unit 

 of effort, CPUE) by various size classes 

 for shrimp fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico.* 



Month 



Figure 3 



Decadal average monthly catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of 68-count 

 pink shrimp i NMFS, Footnote 2 in the 



National Ocean Service. 1963-1994. Tides, 

 high and low waters. NOAA, National Ocean Ser- 

 vice, Tidal Analysis Branch, Silver Spring, MD 

 20910. 



Sikkema, D., and G. Schardt 1987-1994. Hy- 

 drological Section, South Florida Research Center. 

 Everglades National Park, Homestead, FL 33034. 

 Unpuhl. data. 



National Marine Fisheries Service. Statistics 

 Operation Team. 1960-1994. 75 Virginia 

 Beach Drive, Miami, FL 33149. Unpuhl. data 



