CHAPTER 6 

 ANTICIPATED IMPACTS 



The JSA recognizes the difficulty in accurately forecasting and 

 quantifying changes which would be brought about by the activities 

 and actions set forth in the NADP if it were implemented. 

 Variables related to the expansion of aquaculture are m.any and 

 highly complex. However, it is possible to explore potential 

 economic, environmental, and sociocultural changes based on past 

 trends and knowledge about developments that may affect the future. 



Economic Impacts 



Primary Impacts 



Basic supply, demand, and price data needed to assess and quantify 

 the impacts of the aquaculture plan are limited. The problem of 

 determining economic impacts is exacerbated by the diversity of 

 operations, cultural practices, and nature of final demand for 

 aquaculture products. A final obstacle is the current environment 

 of uncertainty that surrounds economic activity. However, this 

 holds true for many industries in the U.S. 



The primary effects of this plan on the aquaculture industry would 

 be to improve production technology and to disseminate 

 technological advances to existing and potential commercial 

 producers. The plan's programs, by contributing to the commercial 

 viability of technology and by providing trained aquacultural 

 personnel for management, research, and extension activities would 

 decrease the risks of entering this relatively young and developing 

 industry. This, in turn, might encourage the establishment of 

 new operations. These effects would make it possible for 

 aquaculturists to produce a given quantity at a lower cost per 

 unit, thus increasing the supply of fish and shellfish products and 

 lowering the cost for consumers. 



This outward shift in the industry's supply curve would presumably 

 bring about a net gain in U.S. economic welfare. The exact 

 magnitude of the. welfare change is difficult to estimate. In 

 general, though, the rate of return to investment in agricultural 

 research in the United States has been estimated to range between 

 35 percent and 171 percent. 



More readily apparent effects of this supply shift would include 

 additional stability and diversification of American agriculture 

 and agribusiness in some areas by providing employment on fish 



Griliches, Z. 1964. Research expenditures, education, 

 and the aggregate agricultural function. American Economic Review 

 54(6):961-974. 



59 



