WORLD POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMAND FOR FISH— THE DECADE AHEAD 



Anthony D. Scott, the Canadian economist, has summarized 

 some of the findings and forecasts of the Food and Agriculture 

 Organization on food and gross national product and of the 

 United Nations on population: 



• The world population is growing about 1.75 percent per year 

 and may double in 40 years. 



Demand for food-fish is expected to rise 3-4 percent per year 

 for the next 10 years, and may double in 25 years or less. 

 Increase in fish consumption would be greatest where popula- 

 tion growth is fastest and present consumption per person is 

 very low. In such areas, even a small increase in income per 

 person can have a very large effect on demand for food-fish. 



• Today, the Americas and Europe consume about 30 percent of 

 all food-fish. In 10 years, their share may fall to 25 percent. 

 Most of the increase in share would go to Asia, Africa, and the 

 Soviet Union. 



• If fishmeal and other nonfood uses are added to food-fish 

 estimates, total increase would run 4-5.5 percent per year. 

 This would compare with growth of total catch since the war 

 of almost 6 percent per year. An increasing proportion of 

 this postwar increase has gone to reduction plants. Peru, the 

 world's leading fishing nation, has put almost all of her greatly 

 expanded catch into fishmeal. 



GROWTH IN WORLD FISHERIES AS COMPARED WITH WORLD 

 POPULATION INCREASE 



40- 



30 



•| 20 



'e 



10- 



6.0 



4.5 

 3.0 



1.5 



1900 



1930 



1960 



WORLD CATCH OF FISH AND SHELLFISH, ETC., BY LEADING COUNTRIES, 

 1955-65 



billion pounds 

 live weight basis 



20 



18 



16 



14 



12 



10 





 1955 '56 '57 '58 '59 '60 



'61 



'62 '63 '64 1965 



year 



LEADING FISHING NATIONS 

 Until 1957, the United States was second only to Japan in volume of 

 catch of fishery products. Data submitted to the Food and Agriculture 

 Organization of the United Nations by Mainland China for 1957 indi- 

 cated that in that year it had moved into second place. In 1960. both 

 Peru and the U.S.S.R. also moved ahead of the United States. 



