anchovies, bonito, tuna, etc., and catastrophic effects on the 

 guano birds. 



Forecasting of ocean conditions, and hence of effects on the 

 fisheries, is presently mostly what might be called "pattern and 

 persistence"' forecasting, supplemented to a limited extent by 

 knowledge of the dynamic processes of the atmosphere and the 

 sea. This is rather similar to much local weather forecasting, 

 and is not very satisfactory. We rely on the facts that changes 

 in the upper layer of the ocean, which are fundamentally due 

 to the wind-driven circulation and the water and heat ex- 

 changes between sea and atmosphere, tend to occur in repetitive 

 patterns, and that anomalies tend to persist for some weeks. 

 The ocean is considerably more sluggish in its changes than is 

 the atmosphere; it has been said that a week in the ocean is 

 comparable to a day in the atmosphere. 



This type of forecasting has enabled oceanographers to make 

 useful predictions in the early spring of the success of the skip- 

 jack fishery near Hawaii during the summer. Similarly, from 

 temperature and salinity distributions and trends off the United 

 States west coast, forecasts are made each year of the expected 

 catch of the albacore and bluefin tuna, and of the most prob- 

 able areas of good albacore fishing. From the trends of tem- 

 perature, which affect growth of kelp, it is possible to make 

 some very general estimates of the expected kelp harvest along 

 southern California. Upwelling in the Gulf of Panama, which 

 influences the abundance of pink shrimp in shallower waters 

 during the winter months, can be forecast somewhat better than 

 chance. The continuing monitoring of the Peru Current by 

 the Instituto del Mar der Peru has enabled short-term fore- 

 casting of success of anchovy fishing there. 



We are, I believe, on the threshold of being able to do much 

 better, through monitoring of atmospheric circulation and heat 

 exchange between sea and atmosphere. As I have noted 

 above, these are the principal driving forces on the upper layers 

 of the sea, and the dynamic relationships between them and the 

 ocean circulation are becoming increasingly better understood. 

 It should soon be possible, given an adequate network of stations 

 for observations of the atmosphere over the sea and of the upper 

 layer of the ocean, by automatic unmanned stations (meteoro- 

 logical and oceanographic buoys) both to keep track of what 

 the ocean is doing, in real time, and to forecast changes which 

 will affect the fisheries. 



To enable a really large advance in oceanographic forecast- 

 ing, the observational net must be sufficient to describe the en- 

 tire physical system, consisting of the atmosphere and the upper 

 mixed layer of the sea for the whole globe, or at least a hemi- 

 sphere. The cost of such a data acquisition system, and asso- 

 ciated processing by computers, will be large, much larger than 

 can be supported for fisheries alone. Fortunately, the same 

 kind of ocean forecasting that is needed by the fisheries interests 

 is also needed for other purposes, such as weather forecasting, 

 ship routing, and several aspects of military ocean operations. 

 We may hope to have such a system of data acquisition, and 

 processing in real time, which is now within our technical capa- 

 bility, in operation within the coming decade. 



20 



