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Processing — Tomorrow 



by E. Robert Kinney 

 President, Gorton's of Gloucester, Inc. 



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The developments in science and technology have shortened 

 the time required to effect new ideas and new processes to 

 produce new products. Technological change is obviously one 

 of the most dynamic forces at work in the world today. We 

 have in the United States of America more than 800,000 en- 

 gineers marshaled to provide us with the greatest creative 

 force ever available. 



In the old days, research and development was a leisurely 

 thing. A man worked alone or with a few assistants. The 

 time factor was not an important one. Remember, New- 

 comen's demonstration of the steam engine preceded the first 

 commercial railroad line by more than 100 years. 



Today, scientific information has been doubling in rate every 

 10 years since the year 1200. Today, we begin to feel the 

 effect of it. 



While other generations and other civilizations in the past 

 had wonderful science and geniuses, none of these found it 

 possible to utilize their science so effectively on behalf of their 

 population. This utilization factor or conversion of science 

 to productivity, via engineering advances, integrated with the 

 compression of time, is something that characterizes our age 

 today and makes the art of prophecy of the future of this in- 

 dustry fraught with difficulty and questionable reliability. 



I was asked to talk with you about my prediction for the 

 future. I am willing to do that because by the time the future 

 comes along what I have predicted won't matter because I 

 won't be here with you then. I may not be here at all by 

 that time and you certainly will have forgotten what I said. It 

 is one of the safest occupations in the world to be a prophet. 



Nevertheless, inspired by this group, I will attempt a trans- 

 formation and metamorphosis from the prognosticator to the 

 prophet. I would guess that this is the same order of trans- 

 formation as the comparison of a man running a business 

 simply by the seat of his pants vs the modern orderly executive 

 armed with an executive staff and a computer. 



What are some of the problems that face us? What are 

 some of the solutions we might see in bare outline for the 

 future? What are some of the products which we might ex- 

 pect in the marketplace? 



First of all, we must recognize that man has been producing 

 babies at an awesome rate ! The daily population increase of 



140,000 souls would make a line from London to New Zealand 

 in 1 year, passing a single ration point; and, if we think of the 

 extra mouth as a refugee receiving a meager ration of a pound 

 of bread, J/2 pint of milk and J/> lb. of fish, this means 2j/> mil- 

 lion extra cows and 10 times the total catch of the Icelandic 

 fleet. 



It has taken mankind over 200,000 years to reach the pres- 

 ent figure of 3 billion people. At the present rate of increase 

 that figure will double itself in 40 years. 



Now these are statistical facts. They prove that either 

 we have more comfortable beds, cars, and other means of pro- 

 creation, or that our infant mortality is less and our life span 

 is greater. _ Nevertheless, all of us in the food industry must 

 recognize that the geometrical rate of rise in our population 

 is one that can affect us in our industry — not just tomorrow, but 

 today. For example, we have more and more people who are 

 fishing for food in the North Atlantic. These create tremen- 

 dous problems of raw materials that need to be solved. We 

 must become more cosmopolitan and less provincial than 

 heretofore in our fish supply. 



We believe in an incongruous world today, full of paradoxes 

 and imponderables. On the one hand, we think nothing of 

 sending space shots at $10 million per shot and, on the other, 

 we argue in the Congress about spending $500,000 per year on 

 the United States fish flour program for the hungry bellies of 

 the world. Throwing instruments or men into space costs 

 about $50,000 for 1 lb. of weight. This gives you a bare idea 

 of the paradox. Our fish flour program represents the cost 

 of sending about 10 lbs. into space ! ! 



Now, by this I do not mean that fish flour will be the caviar 

 of the two-thirds of the world that goes hungry each day. Not 

 at all ! I believe that people are and will be interested in foods 

 as foods. Steaks and cakes — foods that their particular civili- 

 zation and babies are accustomed to. 



Thus, we today know that proteins need not be animal in 

 nature to begin with. They can be from plants and these 

 plant proteins can be spun as fibres, woven as clothes, and 

 made into steaks with all the flavor and texture of the natural 

 product. 



I am not suggesting as fishmongers that we necessarily go 

 into this. But I am suggesting that we be aware of these de- 



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