by borrowing. Notwithstanding Canada's vigorous export 

 promotional efforts in all parts of the world, our surplus with 

 overseas countries is not likely to hold to the 1964 level when 

 unusual influences were at work. Nor would it be prudent 

 on our part to rely indefinitely on the availability of foreign 

 capital to meet the bulk of a deficit of this size with the United 

 States. Canada must therefore look to progressive expansion 

 in our presently disproportionately small share of the North 

 American market for goods and services as a whole. 



Meanwhile the Canadian economy has been moving strongly 

 forward. For the past four years national output in real 

 terms has risen at an average annual rate of about 6 percent. 

 At the same time, our newly formed Economic Council has 

 estimated that we must maintain such a pace of advance, i.e., 

 5 J/2 percent on average each year for the next five years, if 

 our rapidly expanding adult population is to be employed and if 

 our overall productive potential is to be adequately used. 

 Achievement of this target will depend in a very basic way 

 upon the further expansion of international trade. It will de- 

 pend also on the development of our manufacturing and proc- 

 essing industries in the direction of increased efficiencies and 

 competitiveness. Traditionally, Canada's exports have con- 

 sisted largely of products of the earth, the forest, and the sea. 

 Basic resource industries will continue to be of major importance 

 in our export trade. At the same time, we can no longer 

 rely on these industries to provide so preponderant a proportion 

 of our foreign exchange requirements. We must strive fur- 

 ther to expand our share of the world market for highly manu- 

 factured products if we are to hold our own. 



This means a basic transformation in our secondary industry. 

 That exports of end products have doubled in the last three 

 years is an indication that this transformation is under way. It 

 is doubly significant that in this sector the greatest activity has 

 been the increase in Canadian exports to the United States. 

 This country presently absorbs more than half of Canada's ex- 

 ports of end products. It is this market which must hold our 

 greatest promise for the future. 



Canada's fisheries industry has always had and will continue 

 to have a major role in Canadian economy and in Canada's 

 international trade. The total value of fisheries products in 

 Canada has increased over the past 10 years by 50%. Exports 

 amounted to $203 million in 1964 and have kept pace with 

 the overall output. While this has been encouraging we must 

 continue to look to world markets for the further expansion our 

 industry needs. I am pleased to say that the prospects for the 

 future look good. Our fisheries people, who have been known 

 to be pessimistic from time to time, expect a firm market. 

 According to their surveys around the globe there are no over- 

 hanging stocks in most producing countries or in world markets. 

 Accordingly, it should not prove difficult to sell the available 

 quantities of good quality fisheries products, in their various 

 forms, at competitive prices. I do not propose to embark on 

 a more detailed world market analysis. There are many here 

 more competent than I to provide chapter and verse. For my 

 purpose it suffices to emphasize the buoyant market situation 

 in prospect. It is always a pleasure to submit a rosy report, 



CANADA'S FISHERIES 

 Total catch and value 1955-64 



catch in 



millions of pounds 



2,300 



landed value 

 (millions of dollars) 



1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 



but it is also dangerous, and I hope that you will work diligently 

 to ensure that my predictions come true. 



As I have said, we in Canada will be looking for markets 

 wherever we can find them. First and foremost for us and for 

 our Mexican friends is the North American market. Canada 

 has annual landings of over two billion pounds. About two 

 thirds of this is exported in product form. The United States 

 is our biggest customer, accounting for sixty-five percent by 

 value of our export sales of fish. Canada is also an importer 

 of fish. Besides being the best market for American fisheries 

 products, we also import important quantities from Mexico. 



While tariffs between Canada and the United States in fish 

 products are not high, there is one notable exception. The 

 U.S. tariff of some thirty percent on cooked fish sticks has 

 created a marked distortion in North American production and 

 marketing. I can't believe that a tariff at this level makes 

 much sense. I hope the group meeting here today and tomor- 

 row shares this view, and that a more constructive solution can 

 be found. 



Several years ago Mexico placed restrictions on our sales of 

 sardines to their market. It seems to me that there should be 

 some way to reopen this trade. 



In general, with the market situation and prospects so firm, 

 there is a good deal to be said for considering now a move 

 towards freer trade in fish and fish products. 



Not only is the market situation propitious but the negotia- 

 tions already under way in Geneva provide the instrument for 

 Canada and the United States to move forward together in 

 the direction of lowering trade barriers not only between us 

 but in markets for fish throughout the world. I have no 

 doubt that the international arrangements are flexible enough 

 for Mexico to join in this should they so wish. 



A word about the Kennedy Round to which I have just 

 referred. As the bargaining gets tough and frustration after 

 frustration is encountered, a sense of discouragement may 



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