horizon and to alter the incremental style of Soviet 

 decision making and thereby improve strategic plan- 

 ning in both science policy and economic policy. 



S&T forecasts are projections of alternate trends 

 in major areas of science and technology. The vari- 

 ants ultimately selected as a basis for planning re- 

 flect established priorities and preferred options, 

 ideally arrived at by comparative evaluation of ex- 

 pediency, costs, and benefits. The approved fore- 

 casts are the foundation for so-called "basic direc- 

 tions in the development of science and technology 

 during the five-year plan period." The incorpora- 

 tion in forecasts of the combined impact of possibil- 

 ities and objectives is reflected in the fact that 

 subsequent "basic directions" are designated as the 

 framework for addressing the "basic S&T problems" 

 listed in the five-year plan. 



Forecasts may be short term (5-7 years) , medium 

 term (10-15 years) , and long term (20 years and over) 

 and impact on the respective plan periods according- 

 ly. Short-term forecasts are used in machine build- 

 ing and metalworking to project new models of machin- 

 ery and equipment. The longer term forecasts are 

 used to project new types of products or engineering 

 systems. They are commonly made for problems or ar- 

 eas of national importance, and sometimes for branch- 

 es when the problem is clearly within the confines 

 of a particular branch. Long-term forecats have 

 been prepared, for example, for the fuel and energy 

 balance up to the year 2000, for hydro-electric pow- 

 er, long-term chemicalization, and development of 

 branches of heavy industry. 52 



Though more than 150 different forecasting methods 

 have been developed, they fall generally into three 

 major types: extrapolation, expert judgment, and mod- 

 eling. Techniques of extrapolation are usually used 

 in areas where changes are gradual and not disrupted 

 by radically new discoveries. The future is projec- 

 ted largely on the basis of the continuation of pre- 

 sent tendencies of development. In expert judgment, 

 forecasting involves analysis of trends by groups of 



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