plan. Such a program, he told the Party congress 

 five years later, "provides points of reference and 

 orientation without knowledge of which it is impos- 

 sible to manage the economy successfully."^ 



Since 1973, in fact, work on such a general devel- 

 opment plan that would extend to 1990 has been under- 

 way. Given the tremendous and recurring difficulties 

 the leaders have in trying to devise even feasible 

 five year plans, however, it is no wonder that such 

 long-range planning has encountered stiff resistance 

 and serious methodological obstacles. The Academy 

 and the GKNT completed a partial draft of a "Compre- 

 hensive Program of S&T Progress and Its Social and 

 Economic Consequences for 1976-1990" by the fall of 

 1975. Indicating that this effort did not yet meet 

 with full approval, the Party Congress in February 

 1976 instructed the Academy and the State Committee 

 "to continue" their work on this subject and "to see 

 to it" that the forecasts "are better grounded. "^9 

 Preparation of a general 15 year development plan 

 for the country continues to encounter delays and 

 difficulties. 



Though we still know very little about the details 

 of the Comprehensive Program for S&T, it is possible 

 to glimpse from available information at least a few 

 of the central concerns surrounding this endeavor. In 

 general, the more than 150 forecasts prepared for var- 

 ious fields of science and technology before drawing 

 up the Comprehensive Program were only partial fore- 

 casts. They focused on the development and production 

 of only a few select products and processes. In ad- 

 dition, each forecast was developed predominantly on 

 a branch basis, separate from the rest in material 

 and labor resources. The lack of a "systems approach" 

 to planning and resource allocation admittedly dimin- 

 ishes the value of the forecasts. 50 



Particularly significant, the major projects in- 

 cluded in the Comprehensive Program are based only 

 upon S&T achievements that have already found prac- 

 tical application. "This reduces, of course, the 



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