casting in these ministries is confined to that por- 

 tion of R&D conducted in connection with major inter- 

 branch S&T programs. 5" Serious complaints are regis- 

 tered regarding the quality of forecasts. The latter 

 frequently do not take into account economic return, 

 social consequences, the dynamics of prices, etc." 

 The real problem is that no universally acceptable 

 methods have been found for evaluating these factors, 

 nor is there any agreement on how they interface . Be- 

 cause of these general evaluative deficiencies, fore- 

 casting continues to have so-called "black spots" 

 that reduce its value as an instrument of Soviet plan- 

 ning and analytical tool for deciding problems of 

 choice. Nonetheless, with evaluations of current sta- 

 tus and forecasts in hand, planners are prepared to 

 select programs and projects. 



The selection of programs is an iterative process 

 among experts and councils in a position to know the 

 constraints placed on R&D by the availability of in- 

 tellectual, human, and material resources, on the one 

 hand, and the economic and political authorities who 

 provide the objectives and orientation for science on 

 the other. The selection of programs and projects 

 and their subsequent disaggregation generally follow 

 administrative lines corresponding to the infrastruc- 

 ture depicted in chapter 9. In important instances, 

 however, problems are of interbranch significance, 

 and R&D conducted on the problem requires coordina- 

 tion between Academy, university, and/or industrial 

 facilities of several ministries. Similar, multi-fa- 

 cility programs are developed within ministries. The 

 delegation and management of programs and projects, 

 both administratively and functionally oriented, is 

 discussed in greater detail later in this chapter. 

 For now, attention is given only to the selection of 

 original projects at various levels and particularly 

 the criteria of selection. 



National and branch long-range plans for S&T are 

 essentially a bridge between forecasts and the five- 

 year plan. The long-range plan is "apparently a ten- 

 tative selection of the variants of basic directions 

 yielded by the forecasts and sets forth in broad 



113 



