Functional Area Problems. Opportunities, and Constraints 69 



H. Transportation 



Mobility is a trait deeply imbedded in the national charac- 

 ter of the United States. It has been a major feature of 

 American social and economic culture since the founding 

 of the Nation. As the United States grew and developed, 

 mobility became institutionalized into our way of life by 

 the interplay of social, political, economic, and tech- 

 nological forces. Two centuries of development resulted 

 in a national transportation system that is accessible, 

 flexible, and sufficiently efficient to come within the reach 

 of and be used by virtually every citizen. 



Improving the mobility of people and products was the 

 overriding goal for transportation through the first half of 

 the century, and, until the 1970s, the major issues in 

 transportation were dominated solely by that goal. During 

 the 1970s, however, the primary issues shifted. Concerns 

 about the costs of fuel, the social and environmental 

 impacts of transportation, and safety began to be traded 

 off against the objective of simply mcreasing mobility. In 

 the 1980s, additional problems will be added to those of 

 the 1970s. Some of the problems will stem from growing 

 international competition in the manufacture of auto- 

 mobiles and aircraft, some will come from international 

 competition in freight transport, and some will come from 

 current changes in the role of transportation in the life of 

 Americans (NRC-16). All of those concerns present ma- 

 jor challenges for the institutions associated with transpor- 

 tation in America, and science and, particularly, technol- 

 ogy will contribute to meeting those challenges during the 

 balance of the century. 



This section focuses on three interrelated transportation 

 problems that can be significantly affected by science and 

 technology. A fourth area of concern, the international 

 competitive position of American transportation indus- 

 tries, shares problems and opportunities with other sci- 

 ence- and technology-based industries and, therefore, is 

 discussed generically in Sections I-B and I-D and in more 

 detail in the appended Source Volumes (NRC-14; 

 NRC-16; AAAS-2: TRANS). The three problems to be 

 discussed here are the need to meet the Nation's transpor- 

 tation requirements as they expand over the coming years, 

 the need to respond to increasing constraints on liquid 

 petroleum as an inexpensive and readily available energy 

 source, and the need to accomplish those goals while 

 increasing transportation safety. 



It should be emphasized that the American transporta- 

 tion system is in fact multimodal, and the total system is in 

 some senses greater than the sum of its parts. That means 

 that choosing among alternate strategies to resolve prob- 

 lems — whether those strategies are technical, legal, or 

 social in nature — requires an appreciation for and consid- 

 eration of the complex interactions among the various 

 transportation modes, while still recognizing the values 

 and problems unique to each (NRC-16). For example, the 

 advent of lightweight, energy-efficient automobiles has 



already had positive effects in reducing energy require- 

 ments. Additional energy efficiencies could result from an 

 increase in truck payloads. But, carrying heavier payloads 

 increases wear and tear on the highway system, much of 

 which already is in need of repair, and it is not clear that 

 lightweight automobiles can tolerate extended use on de- 

 teriorated roadways. Therefore, rehabilitation of much of 

 the U.S. highway system using improved materials may 

 be required before those two strategies for increasing 

 energy efficiency can reach their full potential (TRANS). 



DEALING WITH INCREASED CAPACITY 

 REQUIREMENTS 



All estimates indicate that transportation capacity require- 

 ments will continue to grow in the coming years, although 

 that growth is expected to be slower during the rest of the 

 century than in the immediate past. That growth, coupled 

 with a variety of constraints, including limitations on 

 carrying capacities and the need to increase transportation 

 safety, requires the application of new science and tech- 

 nology developments to the U.S. transportation system. 



EXPECTATIONS OF TRANSPORTATION NEEDS 



In 1975, passenger transportation between cities in the 

 United States amounted to 1.352 billion passenger-miles, 

 or over 6,000 miles for every man, woman, and child. 

 Intercity movement of goods totaled 2,066 billion ton- 

 miles, averaging almost 10,000 ton-miles per person.' 

 When all transportation is included, both between cities 

 and within cities, the averages for 1975 came to 12.000 

 passenger-miles per person and 15,000 ton-miles per per- 

 son, totaling 2,568 billion passenger-miles and 3,275 

 billion ton-miles. That demand is expected to grow. Ac- 

 cording to one set of estimates (Tables I and 2), in the year 

 2000 there will be 5,008 billion passenger-miles of travel 

 and 5,550 billion ton-miles of freight transportation. That 

 would be an average annual increase of 2.67 percent in 

 aggregate passenger travel and a 1.89 percent average 

 annual increase for total freight transportation. Assuming 



' Highway mode combines automobiles, personal light trucks, two- 

 wheel vehicles, recreational vehicles, and buses. 

 Source: RE. Knorr and Marianne Miller Projections ii/ Direct Energy 

 Consumption by Mode: 1975-2000 Baseline. ANL/CNSV-4. Argonne. 

 III.; Argonne National Laboratory, 1979. 



