8 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



be approximately equal to demand, small deficiencies in 

 the number of highly gifted and highly trained people in 

 specific, critical subspecialties may seriously hamper 

 efforts to pursue some advanced R&D. In other words, 

 the quality of available science and engineering personnel 

 can be, in many important instances, more important than 

 their quantity. 



Personnel shortages in scientific and technological 

 fields are not unique to the United States. There also are 

 impending shortages of science and engineering person- 

 nel in other industrialized countries (NRC-13). Although 

 the number of scientists and engineers engaged in R&D as 

 a fraction of the labor force is higher in the United States 

 than in the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, or 

 Japan, this fraction has been decreasing in the United 

 States from the late 1960s through the early 1970s, while it 

 has risen in those other countries and, in West Germany 

 and Japan, is continuing to rise (Figure 3). The U.S. 



fraction has increased slightly in the past few years but has 

 not reached its former level (SI-80). The Soviet Union has 

 a substantially larger proportion of its labor force engaged 

 in R&D activities than does the United States, although 

 quality comparisons might yield different results. In 

 1979, there were between 84 and 95 scientists and engi- 

 neers per 10,000 members of the Soviet labor force en- 

 gaged in R&D, and the number'appears to be increasing. 

 The comparable figure for the United States in 1979 was 

 59 per 10,000, and that ratio appears to have stabilized 

 {SI-80). 



These comparisons suggest that although several coun- 

 tries that are challenging America's international preemi- 

 nence in science and technology are not without personnel 

 problems, those problems are potentially more severe in 

 the United States. Therefore, both qualitative and quan- 

 titative aspects of the science and engineering personnel 

 situation in the United States will continue to require 

 attention in the coming years. 



(Per 10,000 labor force) 

 100 



95 



90 



85 



80 



75 



70 



b'j 



60 



55 



50 



45 



40 



35 



JO 



10 



5 







1965 56 67 68 59 70 71 72 73 74 75 75 77 78 79 80 



FIGURE 3. Scientists and Engineers' Engaged in R&D per 10,000 

 Labor Force Population by Country. 



'Includes all scientists and engineers on a full-time equivalent basis 

 (except for Japan, whose data include persons primarily employed in 

 R&D, and the United Kingdom, whose data include only the Govern- 

 ment and industry sectors). 



Note: A range has been provided for the U.SS.R. because of the 

 difficulties inherent in comparing Soviet scientific personnel data. 

 Source: National Science Foundation. Science I ndicuKirs. 19X0, 



RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS 



Approximately 70 percent of American total R&D (on the 

 basis of funds expended) is performed by private industry, 

 13 percent is carried out in government laboratories, about 

 10 percent in universities and colleges, 4 percent in uni- 

 versity-administered federally funded research and de- 

 velopment centers, and the remainder in other nonprofit 

 laboratories' (Figure 4). Most scientific and technological 

 activities of industry are classified as development work. 

 Approximately one third of U.S. national R&D expendi- 

 tures is directed toward basic and applied research pro- 

 grams, and approximately 50 percent of all basic research 

 is conducted in university settings."* 



Financial resources and, in some critical cases, person- 

 nel resources for scientific research in the civilian sector 

 are likely to remain tight during the next 5 years, although 

 the President's economic policy is designed to encourage 

 increased investments by private industry. In view of those 

 constraints, there is likely to be increased emphasis on 

 justifying proposed research directions in all types of 

 institutions and on evaluating their results. There proba- 

 bly will also be continuing pressures toward structural 

 changes that might facilitate research. During the recent 

 past, there has been renewed interest in forging closer 

 links between university and industrial laboratories. Im- 

 plications of that trend, which is likely to accelerate during 

 the next 5 years, are discussed in the next section of this 

 chapter. 



UNIVERSITY RESEARCH 



The Nation's higher education system has been at the 

 leading edge of the extraordinary growth and superb 

 quality of the research that gave the United States preemi- 



