energy problem. Considerable savings are anticipated as 

 increasing fuel prices lead manufacturing industries to 

 replace existing capital equipment with more energy- 

 efficient stock, introduce more energy-efficient proc- 

 esses, and make better use of industrial wastes (p. 59). 



NATURAL RESOURCES 



Continued increases in the world's population, coupled 

 with rapid industrialization in many middle-tier countries, 

 are likely to exert increasing pressures on the world's 

 natural resource base. Global trends affecting the price of 

 strategic metals could also affect their availability to the 

 U.S. economy. Seasonal water shortages are becoming 

 common in some areas of the country. Desertification of 

 arid lands is a severe problem worldwide and is serious in 

 some areas of the United States. The long-range effects of 

 many resource constramt problems, both in the United 

 States and globally, will depend critically on advances in 

 science and technology and on the implementation of 

 those advances (pp. 60-61). 



NONFUEL MINERALS 



There will be a continuing need for long-range efforts to 

 ensure the availability of nonfuel minerals vital to the 

 domestic economy, including several metals whose easily 

 accessible, high-grade ores have largely been mined al- 

 ready in this country. The development of new and more 

 sensitive instruments to detect anomalous concentrations 

 of minerals in the Earth's crust, coupled with a deeper 

 understanding of fundamental mineral formation proc- 

 esses, would increase the probability of locating new 

 mineral reserves in the United States. Additional reserves 

 of certain critical metals exist in the deep ocean floor, 

 although the technology for extracting them requires fur- 

 ther development. Promising advanced mining and hand- 

 ling technologies and more energy-efficient processes for 

 the primary conversion of mineral ores into metals could 

 improve the international competitive position of the U.S. 

 minerals production and processing sector The develop- 

 ment of advanced alternative materials that could be sub- 

 stituted for scarce imported metals is being pressed by the 

 U.S. defense and space R&D programs and shows con- 

 siderable promise for the civilian economy as well (pp. 

 61-62). 



WATER SUPPLIES 



Seasonal water shortages are common in 20 percent of the 

 106 U.S. watersheds, and that percentage could double by 

 the end of the century. Water shortages are being exacer- 

 bated in the Western States by population shifts and the 



development of new energy industries. A major program 

 to identify and exploit additional ground water has been 

 initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and technologies 

 for decreasing industrial, agricultural, and urban water 

 use have already aided conservation efforts. Demonstra- 

 tion plants for converting seawater and brackish water to 

 useful quality are under construction, although present 

 processes are both expensive and highly energy ineffi- 

 cient. Results of ongoing research aimed at developing 

 less water intensive crops and crops that can grow in 

 highly saline water show considerable promise as a means 

 for reducing water consumption in agriculture (pp. 

 62-63). 



DESERTIFICATION OF ARID LANDS 



The sustained decline of the productivity of the world's 

 arid lands is projected to increase by another 20 percent by 

 the end of the century. Agricultural productivity in the 

 United States is also being affected by desertification, 

 although the increased use of chemical fertilizers, water, 

 and herbicides and pesticides has compensated somewhat 

 for declining soil conditions. Research and development 

 on salt-tolerant crops and vegetation, development of 

 economic uses for naturally occurring arid land plants, 

 rehabilitation of degraded lands, introduction of opera- 

 tional desertification monitoring techniques, and im- 

 proved management of surface- and ground-water reser- 

 voirs can further alleviate desertification effects (p. 64). 



DISAPPEARANCE OF TROPICAL FORESTS 



The rapid disappearance of the world's tropical forests is 

 leading to severe and far-reaching ecological problems. In 

 the less developed countries, where most tropical forests 

 are located, the disappearance also means the loss of a 

 widely used resource. The United States relies on tropical 

 forests as a major source of specialty woods and phar- 

 maceuticals. A coordinated international effort on tropi- 

 cal forest research and management, greatly increased 

 worldwide reforestation, and a detailed analysis of the 

 political, economic, and social consequences of reforesta- 

 tion are regarded as minimally necessary responses to the 

 problem (p. 64). 



ENVIRONMENT 



Impressive gains in controlling pollution and upgrading 

 the quality of the environment were made during the 

 1970s. However, the total costs of some of the Federal 

 regulations designed to protect the environment and the 

 ways they have been interpreted or enforced may out- 

 weigh the intended benefits. Detailed scientific informa- 



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